Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 8

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Heroes de San Ramon (Cajamarca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Max, Movistar Deportes
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Cajamarca		Cienciano

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.5	1.95
	3.20	3.50	1.93
	3.5	3.55	1.95	Watch
	3.47	3.69	2.03
	3.48	3.72	1.97	Watch
	3.4	3.65	1.96
	3.49	3.52	1.99	Watch
	3.3	3.45	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.41 ↑ (2.18)	3.57 ↑ (3.5)	1.97 ↓ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cajamarca
27.1%

Draw
25.9%

Cienciano
47%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

26.4%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

25.5%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cajamarca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cajamarca's form might have worsened.

Cienciano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cienciano's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cajamarca than the current prediction. (+16.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cajamarca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cienciano than the current prediction. (-16.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cienciano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Cajamarca - Cienciano Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Cienciano will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Aspajo S. (G) 5. Suarez R. 2. Posito Olazabal A. J. 95. Vilchez Y. 31. Enciso S. 18. Orejuela J. G. (C) 13. Correa Flores C. A. 6. Rasmussen M. 11. Arrasco M. 17. Palacios B. 9. Cejas P.	1. Falcon G. (G) 4. Amondarain M. (C) 3. Becerra K. 16. Martinich M. 22. Cabello C. 39. Caparo H. 88. Barreto G. 29. Robles A. 11. Bandiera N. 17. Sandoval R. 19. Succar M.
Substitutes
88. Aubert E. 44. Gomez C. 14. Gutierrez A. 77. Lugo J. 3. Medina J. (G) 20. Meza C. 7. Pineau S. 4. Soto J. 21. Vega J.	26. Aguilar R. 8. Aguirre G. 14. Cavero S. 31. Espinoza Gomes I. (G) 21. Garces C. 13. Nunez C. 25. Salazar R. 7. Souza Espana C. 27. Yovera A.
Coaches
Ayala Gavilan C. R.	Melgarejo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 3)
4', 1 - 0, Palacios B. ⚽, Arrasco M. (A),
19', 2 - 0, Arrasco M. ⚽, Palacios B. (A),
21', 2 - 1, Cabello C. ⚽, Barreto G. (A),
31', Enciso S. (Penalty Awarded),
36', 2 - 2, Sandoval R. ⚽, Cabello C. (A),
40', 2 - 3, Bandiera N. ⚽, Sandoval R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Suarez R. ↓, Gomez C. ↑,
46', Enciso S. ↓, Gutierrez A. ↑,
46', Rasmussen M. ↓, Lugo J. ↑,
46', Caparo H. ↓, Nunez C. ↑,
46', Sandoval R. ↓, Souza Espana C. ↑,
59', Succar M. ↓, Garces C. ↑,
62', Orejuela J. G. 🟨,
64', Barreto G. 🟨,
66', Cabello C. ↓, Salazar R. ↑,
74', 2 - 4, Souza Espana C. ⚽, Martinich M. (A),
76', Palacios B. ↓, Meza C. ↑,
83', Bandiera N. ↓, Cavero S. ↑,
84', 2 - 5, Garces C. ⚽, Robles A. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 13 and 16).

Cajamarca has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cienciano is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Cienciano might have a minor edge in this game.

There are questionable in Cajamarca: Gallardo J. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Cajamarca won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Cienciano	11	3	2	6	14:18	-4	11
13	FC Cajamarca	11	3	2	6	18:24	-6	11

Last Results with these Odds

Cienciano - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 31.29%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Cajamarca
Peruvian Liga 1
28.08.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Cajamarca	2:3 ✺
21.08.26	Cajamarca - Atlético Grau	1:3 ✺
16.08.26	Cajamarca - Universitario de Deportes	2:3 ✺
09.08.26	FBC Melgar - Cajamarca	2:4 ✺
01.08.26	Cajamarca - Sport Huancayo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.5 WLLWL
- Cienciano
Peruvian Liga 1
30.08.26	Cienciano - Cusco	1:2 ✺
23.08.26	Sport Boys - Cienciano	5:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
20.08.26	Botafogo RJ - Cienciano	1:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
16.08.26	Cienciano - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.08.26	Cienciano - Botafogo RJ	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
20.03.26	Cienciano - Cajamarca	3:0

Cajamarca - Cienciano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide