Match Info

MLS

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: TQL Stadium (Cincinnati, OH)

Referee: Vazquez R. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	Apple TV International


	Cincinnati		Orlando City

	1	X	2
	1.66	4.5	4.2	Watch
	1.6	4.6	4.33
	1.7	4.45	4.15	Watch
	1.74	4.61	4.21
	1.7	4.49	4.13	Watch
	1.67	4.2	3.9
	1.72	4.62	4.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.62)	4.5 ↓ (4.66)	4.17 ↓ (4.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cincinnati
56.2%

Draw
21.1%

Orlando City
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.3%

20.3%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.4%

23.1%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cincinnati has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Orlando City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cincinnati than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cincinnati, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orlando City than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	14.3%	28.6%

Cincinnati - Orlando City Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Cincinnati will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Orlando City will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Orlando City (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Orlando City (3.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Orlando City (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Celentano R. (G) 11. Gidi S. 21. Miazga M. 24. Smith K. 20. Bucha P. 5. Nwobodo O. 10. Evander (C) 22. Valenzuela G. 29. Ramirez Leon B. J. 9. Denkey K. 17. Mboma K.	71. Crepeau M. (G) 4. Brekalo D. 6. Jansson R. (C) 3. Gomez A. 24. Dorsey G. 20. Atuesta E. 8. Ojeda B. 11. Tiago 77. Angulo I. 22. Ellis J. 10. Ojeda M.
Substitutes
27. Anunga T. 16. Barlow T. 88. Chirila A. 66. Echenique E. 3. Flores G. 4. Hagglund N. 99. Jabbari A. 55. Lajhar A. 13. Louro E. (G)	16. Cartagena W. 57. Iago Teodoro 5. Luis Otavio 13. McGuire D. 12. Otero J. (G) 87. Pasalic M. 29. Reid-Brown T. 14. Spicer T. 19. Taifi Z.
Coaches
Noonan P.	Perelman M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
10', Gomez A. 🟨,
16', 0 - 1, Ojeda M. (Penalty Awarded),
32', Valenzuela G. 🟨,
40', Tiago 🟨,
42', 1 - 1, Mboma K. ⚽, Evander (A),
45+3', 2 - 1, Evander ⚽, Bucha P. (A),
2nd Half (4 - 1)
46', Tiago ↓, Spicer T. ↑,
47', Miazga M. 🟨,
48', 2 - 2, Ojeda M. ⚽,
52', 3 - 2, Mboma K. ⚽, Evander (A),
57', Ellis J. ↓, Pasalic M. ↑,
58', 4 - 2, Evander ⚽,
70', Brekalo D. 🟨,
72', Gomez A. ↓, McGuire D. ↑,
72', Dorsey G. ↓, Cartagena W. ↑,
74', Nwobodo O. ↓, Anunga T. ↑,
77', 5 - 2, Denkey K. ⚽, Evander (A),
83', Valenzuela G. ↓, Echenique E. ↑,
83', Mboma K. ↓, Barlow T. ↑,
86', Ojeda B. ↓, Luis Otavio ↑,
90+1', 6 - 2, Barlow T. ⚽, Echenique E. (A),
90+2', Gidi S. ↓, Hagglund N. ↑,
90+5', Denkey K. ↓, Jabbari A. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 2.

Cincinnati has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Orlando City is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Cincinnati may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Cincinnati is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Orlando City: Gerbet J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Cincinnati: Chirila A. (Concussion) Fletcher K. (Knee Injury) Hadebe T. (Leg Injury) Powell A. (Leg Injury) Robinson M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Orlando City: Miller N. (Knee Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:18. (average 0.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Cincinnati won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 0.7:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Cincinnati
MLS
16.05.26	San Diego - Cincinnati	3:3 ✺
13.05.26	Cincinnati - Inter Miami	3:5 ✺
09.05.26	Charlotte - Cincinnati	2:2 ✺
02.05.26	Chicago Fire - Cincinnati	2:3 ✺
25.04.26	Cincinnati - New York Red Bulls	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 TLTWW
- Orlando City
US Open Cup
19.05.26	Orlando City - Atlanta United	4:1 ✺
MLS
16.05.26	Orlando City - Atlanta United	1:1 ✺
13.05.26	Orlando City - Philadelphia Union	4:3 ✺
09.05.26	CF Montréal - Orlando City	2:0 ✺
02.05.26	Inter Miami - Orlando City	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.2 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

MLS
28.09.25	Cincinnati - Orlando City	1:1
28.06.25	Orlando City - Cincinnati	1:2
05.10.24	Cincinnati - Orlando City	1:3
04.05.24	Orlando City - Cincinnati	0:1
02.09.23	Cincinnati - Orlando City	0:1
04.03.23	Orlando City - Cincinnati	0:0
24.06.22	Cincinnati - Orlando City	1:0

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