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Current Win Probability
Santiago Wanderers 42.9%
Draw 28.8%
San Marcos de Arica 28.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
38.2%
30%
31.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
36.6%
28.7%
33.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Santiago Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)
San Marcos de Arica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santiago Wanderers than the current prediction. (-6.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Santiago Wanderers that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Marcos de Arica than the current prediction. (+4.9%)
Santiago Wanderers - San Marcos de Arica Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
36. Martinez B. (G) 7. Herrera A. 31. Valenzuela C. 18. Felipe S. 16. Navarro P. 38. Portilla D. 5. Navarro L. (C) 8. Silva J. 23. Flores I. 9. Camarda M. 14. Ponce C.
13. Tapia B. (G) 5. Rivera J. 8. Barrios A. 23. Cazula A. 10. Sagredo B. 15. Cubillos G. 19. Maidana A. 26. Rencoret C. (C) 9. Melivilu Fuentes C. 20. Abalos A. 22. Donadell N.
Substitutes
20. Avendano L. 24. Dubo A. 22. Javier Parraguez 10. Luna J. 25. Terrazas F. (G) 32. Vargas V. 15. Villarroel M.
33. Benavides E. 39. Gallegos V. 4. Iturra M. 17. Moya Godoy M. 16. Reyes G. 11. Zedan N.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Flores I. 🟨,
45+4', Cubillos G. 🟨,
45+4', Navarro P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', Navarro L. 🟥,
54', 0 - 1, Maidana A. ⚽,
60', Cazula A. 🟨,
61', Silva J. ↓, Luna J. ↑,
61', Flores I. ↓, Vargas V. ↑,
63', Tapia B. 🟨,
65', Abalos A. ↓, Reyes G. ↑,
69', Valenzuela C. ↓, Javier Parraguez ↑,
71', Donadell N. ↓, Iturra M. ↑,
76', Herrera A. ↓, Villarroel M. ↑,
76', Portilla D. ↓, Dubo A. ↑,
80', Tapia B. 🟨,
82', Melivilu Fuentes C. ↓, Zedan N. ↑,
82', Sagredo B. ↓, Gallegos V. ↑,
84', 1 - 1, Camarda M. ⚽,
Preview
One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santiago Wanderers won 3.
Santiago Wanderers has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
San Marcos de Arica is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
San Marcos de Arica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Santiago Wanderers won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 22:11. (average 1.6:0.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Santiago Wanderers won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:6. (average 1.7:0.9).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
3
S. Wanderers
26
12
8
6
41:28
13
44
7
San Marcos de Arica
26
10
9
7
33:24
9
39
Last Results with these Odds
Santiago Wanderers - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.19%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.
San Marcos de Arica - the odds 2.92 are the expected chance of winning is 31.78%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.
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Martinez B. (G) 
Felipe S. 
Navarro L. (C) 
Zedan N. 
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