Match Info

CHILE: Primera Division - Round 25

Date: 24 September 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Zorros del Desierto (Calama)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	TNT Sports, TNT Sports Go, TNT Sports Premium


	Cobreloa		Ñublense

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.5	2.6	Watch
	2.45	3.5	2.65
	2.5	3.5	2.65	Watch
	2.54	3.64	2.71
	2.49	3.48	2.65	Watch
	2.38	3.5	2.6
	2.47	3.52	2.63	Watch
	2.5	3.5	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.84)	3.52 ↑ (3.39)	2.64 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cobreloa
37.8%

Draw
26.7%

Ñublense
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

27.3%

40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

26.3%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cobreloa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cobreloa's performance.

Ñublense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cobreloa than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cobreloa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ñublense than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ñublense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	28.6%	28.6%

Cobreloa - Ñublense Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Cobreloa will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Ñublense will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cobreloa: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Avellaneda N. (G) 2. Espejo J. 4. Tapia B. (C) 6. Palma N. 3. Aguila Bastias Y. M. 42. Brasil M. 11. Leiva J. 7. Insaurralde C. 10. Borgnino M. 41. Donadell N. 33. Fernandez P.	1. Perez N. (G) 18. Cerezo B. 2. Labrin C. 4. Bosso Torres O. 14. Campusano G. (C) 28. Rivera M. 20. Graciani G. 27. Moya F. 7. Oyarzo Munoz B. 26. Sosa I. 11. Sanchez P.
Substitutes
1. Araya Tobar H. E. (G) 17. Bravo C. 43. Di Maio L. 24. Garcia L. 39. Ogaz B. 14. Orrego N. 37. Valdes B.	9. Bonacci P. 21. Medina C. 22. Plaza M. 12. Rubio P. 30. Tapia D. (G) 15. Valencia Cisternas S. A. 16. Vasquez R.
Coaches
Giovagnoli D.	Salas M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Campusano G. 🟥,
35', Sanchez P. ↓, Valencia Cisternas S. A. ↑,
45+3', Avellaneda N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Fernandez P. ↓, Di Maio L. ↑,
46', Borgnino M. ↓, Orrego N. ↑,
46', Graciani G. ↓, Rubio P. ↑,
49', Labrin C. 🟨,
64', Donadell N. 🟨,
69', Sosa I. ↓, Medina C. ↑,
69', Moya F. ↓, Plaza M. ↑,
81', Brasil M. ↓, Valdes B. ↑,
84', Oyarzo Munoz B. ↓, Vasquez R. ↑,
90+6', 0 - 1, Rubio P. ⚽, Rivera M. (A),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cobreloa won 1.

Cobreloa is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Ñublense is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Cobreloa won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 27-37.

Including matches at home between the teams Cobreloa won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 19-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cobreloa
Chilean Primera Division
14.09.24	Audax Italiano - Cobreloa	2:0 ✺
01.09.24	Cobreloa - Colo-Colo	0:1 ✺
27.08.24	Cobreloa - Coquimbo Unido	1:0 ✺
23.08.24	Universidad de Chile - Cobreloa	4:0 ✺
17.08.24	Unión Española - Cobreloa	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLWLL
- Deportivo Ñublense
Chilean Primera Division
14.09.24	Ñublense - Cobresal	1:0 ✺
01.09.24	Palestino - Ñublense	1:1 ✺
29.08.24	Colo-Colo - Ñublense	2:1 ✺
22.08.24	Ñublense - Unión Española	0:0 ✺
17.08.24	Ñublense - Everton de Viña	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Primera Division
27.04.24	Ñublense - Cobreloa	6:0
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
06.12.20	Cobreloa - Ñublense	4:2
05.10.20	Ñublense - Cobreloa	3:2
15.09.19	Cobreloa - Ñublense	1:2
05.05.19	Ñublense - Cobreloa	3:2
14.10.18	Cobreloa - Ñublense	1:0
20.05.18	Ñublense - Cobreloa	5:0

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