Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 9 May 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra (Cutervo)

Referee: Zamora J. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Peru	L1 Max, Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports 1, Foxsports.com


	Comerciantes Unidos		Escuela Municipal Binacional

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.4	4.75	Watch
	1.9	3.25	3.5
	1.8	3.6	4.3	Watch
	1.85	3.55	4.63
	1.79	3.53	4.47	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.6
	1.83	3.82	4.29	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 (1.83)	3.52 ↓ (3.8)	4.23 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Comerciantes Unidos
51.2%

Draw
26.7%

Escuela Municipal Binacional
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

24.7%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

24%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Comerciantes Unidos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Escuela Municipal Binacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Comerciantes Unidos than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Escuela Municipal Binacional than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	28.6%	28.6%

Comerciantes Unidos - Escuela Municipal Binacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Comerciantes Unidos will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Binacional will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Villete A. (G) 35. Paredes G. 27. Sosa B. 5. Duclos F. 30. Marina J. 6. Paico K. 36. Alfaro Martinez G. E. 14. Gonzales S. 10. Escalante L. 15. Carpio Ferro M. P. 9. Sen M.	21. Azurin A. (G) 38. Perez C. 2. Rodriguez N. 4. Timana H. 13. Gutierrez A. 8. Tello Y. 88. Aubert E. 7. Carranza J. 10. Torres R. 27. Aguinaga A. 20. Torres M.
Substitutes
96. Campos H. 1. Caytuiro F. (G) 12. Garcia L. 25. Guzman W. 11. Lecaros A. 26. Mendez P. 20. Parodi J. 18. Portugal B. 77. Sandoval R.	24. Ayqque J. 28. Chavez E. 18. Figueroa N. 22. Flores F. 23. Magallanes A. 25. Meza C. 1. Montalvo D. (G) 14. Rasmussen M. 16. Revilla J.
Coaches
Arce J.	Bustamante C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Tello Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', Gutierrez A. ↓, Chavez E. ↑,
62', Escalante L. ↓, Lecaros A. ↑,
62', Alfaro Martinez G. E. ↓, Mendez P. ↑,
71', 1 - 0, Sen M. ⚽, Gonzales S. (A),
73', Gonzales S. ↓, Portugal B. ↑,
74', Carpio Ferro M. P. ↓, Sandoval R. ↑,
77', Aguinaga A. ↓, Flores F. ↑,
77', Torres R. ↓, Meza C. ↑,
78', 1 - 1, Aubert E. ⚽, Carranza J. (A),
86', Marina J. ↓, Parodi J. ↑,
88', Carranza J. ↓, Rasmussen M. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 and 13).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Comerciantes Unidos may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Comerciantes Unidos is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Comerciantes Unidos won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Comerciantes Unidos won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Comerciantes Unidos
Peruvian Liga 1
01.05.25	FBC Melgar - Comerciantes Unidos	1:1 ✺
20.04.25	Sport Huancayo - Comerciantes Unidos	4:2 ✺
13.04.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Sport Boys	0:4 ✺
06.04.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Comerciantes Unidos	0:2 ✺
27.03.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Atlético Grau	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23 TLLWT
- Escuela Municipal Binacional
Peruvian Liga 1
04.05.25	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Los Chankas	1:2 ✺
26.04.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Escuela Municipal Binacional	0:1 ✺
18.04.25	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Universitario de Deportes	1:3 ✺
13.04.25	ADT Tarma - Escuela Municipal Binacional	1:1 ✺
04.04.25	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Ayacucho	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
16.09.18	Comerciantes Unidos - Escuela Municipal Binacional	1:2
30.05.18	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Comerciantes Unidos	1:0

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