Match Info

ITALY: Serie A - Round 14

Date: 30 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia (Como)

Referee: Sacchi J. L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Disney+, Onefootball


	Como		Monza

	1	X	2
	2	3.25	4	Watch
	2	3.2	4
	2.08	3.3	3.7	Watch
	2.06	3.27	4.18
	2.12	3.19	4	Watch
	2.05	3.2	3.8
	2.13	3.44	3.91	Watch
	2.1	3.3	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.9)	3.27 ↓ (3.51)	3.92 ↓ (4.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Como
46.3%

Draw
29.3%

Monza
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

27.3%

22.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

26.7%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Como has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Monza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Como than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Como, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monza than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52%	36%	12%

Como - Monza Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Como will win (votes: 13 - 52%). Monza will win (votes: 3 - 12%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 36%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Como: 32.4% – 71.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Reina P. (G) 77. Van der Brempt I. 5. Goldaniga E. 2. Kempf M. O. 18. Moreno A. 26. Engelhardt Y. 33. Da Cunha L. 7. Strefezza G. 79. Paz N. 16. Fadera A. 10. Cutrone P. (C)	30. Turati S. (G) 5. Caldirola L. 22. Mari P. (C) 44. Carboni A. 13. Pereira P. 38. Bondo W. 42. Bianco A. 77. Kyriakopoulos G. 47. Mota D. 10. Caprari G. 11. Djuric M.
Substitutes
1. Audero E. (G) 93. Barba F. 8. Baselli D. 11. Belotti A. 27. Braunoder M. 17. Cerri A. 60. Chinetti F. 9. Gabrielloni A. 6. Iovine A. 15. Jack F. 3. Sala M. 90. Verdi S.	19. Birindelli S. 84. Ciurria P. 57. Colombo L. 33. D'Ambrosio D. 20. Forson O. 14. Maldini D. 24. Maric M. 69. Mazza A. (G) 37. Petagna A. 21. Pizzignacco S. (G) 52. Postiglione N. 27. Valoti M. 80. Vignato S.
Coaches
Fabregas C.	Nesta A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Engelhardt Y. ⚽,
44', Paz N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Mota D. ↓, Maldini D. ↑,
53', 1 - 1, Caprari G. (Pen),
68', Pereira P. ↓, Birindelli S. ↑,
68', Van der Brempt I. ↓, Iovine A. ↑,
69', Fadera A. ↓, Verdi S. ↑,
69', Cutrone P. ↓, Belotti A. ↑,
81', Caldirola L. ↓, D'Ambrosio D. ↑,
81', Caprari G. ↓, Valoti M. ↑,
83', Moreno A. ↓, Sala M. ↑,
83', Sala M. 🟨,
88', Strefezza G. ↓, Gabrielloni A. ↑,
90+2', Iovine A. 🟨,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Como won 1.

Como has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Monza is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Como will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Como: Dossena A. (Red Card) Gabrielloni A. (Muscle Injury) Perrone M. (Injury)

There will not play in Monza: Cragno A. (Shoulder Injury) Gagliardini R. (Injury) Izzo A. (Yellow Cards) Pessina M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Como: Baselli D. (Injury) Da Cunha L. (Injury) Jasim A. (Ankle Injury) Kempf M. O. (Injury) Mazzitelli L. (Injury) Roberto S. (Injury) Strefezza G. (Injury) Van der Brempt I. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Monza: Ciurria P. (Knee Injury) D'Ambrosio D. (Injury) Forson O. (Injury) Petagna A. (Injury) Sensi S. (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Como won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6:7 (average 1:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Como won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:1 (average 0.7:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Como
Italian Serie A
24.11.24	Como - Fiorentina	0:2 ✺
07.11.24	Genoa - Como	1:1 ✺
04.11.24	Empoli - Como	1:0 ✺
31.10.24	Como - Lazio	1:5 ✺
25.10.24	Torino - Como	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLLL
- Monza 1912
Italian Serie A
24.11.24	Torino - Monza	1:1 ✺
10.11.24	Monza - Lazio	0:1 ✺
02.11.24	Monza - Milan	0:1 ✺
30.10.24	Atalanta - Monza	2:0 ✺
27.10.24	Monza - Venezia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
03.04.22	Como - Monza	2:0
21.11.21	Monza - Como	3:2
Italian Serie C Group A
19.01.20	Monza - Como	1:1
08.09.19	Como - Monza	0:1
07.03.15	Como - Monza	0:0
17.10.14	Monza - Como	2:1

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