Match Info

ITALY: Serie A - Round 11

Date: 2 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Brianteo (Monza)

Referee: Feliciani E. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 2, New World Sport App
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	ESPN 2, ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belgium	DAZN 1, DAZN 2, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	TLN, VIVA
Chile	ESPN 2, ESPN
China	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	Free, L'Equipe, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+
India	GXR World
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport 2, Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, Sky Calcio 1, Sky Sport 1, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Calcio, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	DAZN Japan
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	ESPN
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Norway	VG+
Peru	ESPN
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ESPN South
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-arab-emirates	Abu Dhabi Sports Premium 1
Usa	CBS, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports 1, Foxsports.com, Paramount+, SiriusXM FC
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Football, ON Plus
World	Disney+, Onefootball, Setanta Sports 1 Eurasia


	Monza		Milan

	1	X	2
	6	3.7	1.62	Watch
	5.5	3.8	1.63
	5.35	3.9	1.65
	6.07	3.95	1.68
	5.58	3.76	1.69	Watch
	5.5	3.8	1.65
	5.64	4.12	1.68	Watch
	5.5	4	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.64 ↑ (4.75)	3.88 ↑ (3.73)	1.66 ↓ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

Watch this match and Italian Serie A with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: FOX Deportes

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Current Win Probability

Monza
17.1%

Draw
24.8%

Milan
58.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.2%

25.7%

54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.8%

29.2%

61.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monza than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.9%	10.3%	82.8%

Monza - Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: Milan will win (47 of 57 users predict this - 82.46%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.59% – 92.33%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Turati S. (G) 4. Izzo A. 22. Mari P. (C) 44. Carboni A. 13. Pereira P. 38. Bondo W. 42. Bianco A. 77. Kyriakopoulos G. 47. Mota D. 14. Maldini D. 11. Djuric M.	16. Maignan M. (G) 42. Terracciano F. 28. Thiaw M. 31. Pavlovic S. 19. Hernandez T. (C) 29. Fofana Y. 14. Reijnders T. 21. Chukwueze S. 11. Pulisic C. 17. Okafor N. 7. Morata A.
Substitutes
19. Birindelli S. 5. Caldirola L. 10. Caprari G. 84. Ciurria P. 33. D'Ambrosio D. 24. Maric M. 69. Mazza A. (G) 32. Pessina M. 21. Pizzignacco S. (G) 52. Postiglione N. 27. Valoti M. 80. Vignato S.	90. Abraham T. 2. Calabria D. 73. Camarda F. 22. Emerson Royal 10. Leao R. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 80. Musah Y. 57. Sportiello M. (G) 23. Tomori F. 96. Torriani L. (G)
Coaches
Nesta A.	Fonseca P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
43', 0 - 1, Reijnders T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Morata A. 🟨,
53', Djuric M. 🟨,
63', Okafor N. ↓, Leao R. ↑,
65', Pereira P. ↓, D'Ambrosio D. ↑,
65', Mota D. ↓, Vignato S. ↑,
78', Djuric M. ↓, Maric M. ↑,
78', Carboni A. ↓, Caprari G. ↑,
81', Chukwueze S. ↓, Loftus-Cheek R. ↑,
83', Bondo W. 🟨,
87', Bondo W. ↓, Valoti M. ↑,
89', Terracciano F. ↓, Musah Y. ↑,
89', Pulisic C. ↓, Calabria D. ↑,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 and 8).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Monza won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Milan could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Milan is a favorite.

There will not play in Monza: Ciurria P. (Knee Injury) Cragno A. (Shoulder Injury)

There will not play in Milan: Abraham T. (Shoulder Injury) Bennacer I. (Calf Injury) Florenzi A. (Knee Injury) Gabbia M. (Muscle Injury) Jovic L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Monza: Birindelli S. (Injury) Gagliardini R. (Injury) Maldini D. (Shoulder Injury) Petagna A. (Injury) Sensi S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Milan: Calabria D. (Calf Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Monza won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 8:23 (average 0.9:2.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Monza won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5:9 (average 1:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Monza 1912
Italian Serie A
30.10.24	Atalanta - Monza	2:0 ✺
27.10.24	Monza - Venezia	2:2 ✺
21.10.24	Verona - Monza	0:3 ✺
06.10.24	Monza - Roma	1:1 ✺
29.09.24	Napoli - Monza	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LTWTL
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
29.10.24	Milan - Napoli	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.10.24	Milan - Club Brugge	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
19.10.24	Milan - Udinese	1:0 ✺
06.10.24	Fiorentina - Milan	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Milan	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
13.08.24	Milan - Monza	3:1
Italian Serie A
18.02.24	Monza - Milan	4:2
17.12.23	Milan - Monza	3:0
Club Friendly
08.08.23	Monza - Milan	1:1
Italian Serie A
18.02.23	Monza - Milan	0:1
22.10.22	Milan - Monza	4:1
Club Friendly
05.09.20	Milan - Monza	4:1

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