Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Final

Date: 12 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Neo Quimica Arena (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
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Asia	beIN Sports MENA 2
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Brazil	Canais Globo, Disney+, ESPN, Globo Esporte, TV Globo
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
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Germany	Sportdigital+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	beIN Sports
Turkey	S Sport+
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Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+, Pluto TV


	Corinthians		Barcelona Guayaquil

	1	X	2
	1.3	5	9	Watch
	1.38	5	7
	1.3	5.5	8.5	Watch
	1.29	5.47	10.02
	1.31	5.41	9.74	Watch
	1.3	5	8.5	Watch
	1.34	5.17	8.78	Watch
	1.3	5.5	8.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.37)	5.26 ↑ (4.5)	8.76 ↑ (7.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Corinthians
71.4%

Draw
17.9%

Barcelona Guayaquil
10.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.2%

20.5%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.2%

18.7%

13.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Barcelona Guayaquil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Corinthians that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona Guayaquil than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Corinthians - Barcelona Guayaquil Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Corinthians will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Barcelona will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (C) 2. Matheuzinho 3. Torres F. 13. Gustavo Henrique 21. Matheus Bidu 70. Martinez J. 14. Raniele 19. Carrillo A. 8. Garro R. 9. Yuri Alberto 10. Depay M.	1. Contreras J. (G) 18. Carabali B. 3. Arreaga X. (C) 4. Vallecilla G. 6. Chala A. 23. Arroyo D. 22. Souza de Almeida L. 30. Oyola B. 21. Valiente J. 13. Corozo J. 9. Rivero O.
Substitutes
80. Alex Santana 5. Andre Ramalho 11. Angel Romero 27. Breno Bidon 25. Caca 35. Charles Rigon 46. Hugo 33. Leo Mana 32. Matheus Donelli (G) 7. Maycon 37. Ryan 43. Talles Magno	10. Caicedo F. 41. Calle P. 37. Campi G. 29. Chala Rosales W. J. 8. Cortez Casierra G. J. 16. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 7. Gomez J. 31. Luque D. 2. Mario Pineida 28. Quinonez Ruiz J. R. 14. Rangel A. 27. Vargas W.
Coaches
Diaz R.	Castillo S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', Raniele ↓, Angel Romero ↑,
40', 1 - 0, Torres F. ⚽, Garro R. (A),
42', Contreras J. 🟨,
45+2', Garro R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Souza de Almeida L. 🟨,
62', Souza de Almeida L. 🟨,
64', Martinez J. ↓, Talles Magno ↑,
65', Valiente J. ↓, Quinonez Ruiz J. R. ↑,
65', Oyola B. ↓, Campi G. ↑,
84', Matheus Bidu ↓, Breno Bidon ↑,
84', 2 - 0, Carrillo A. ⚽, Gustavo Henrique (A),
88', Carabali B. ↓, Rangel A. ↑,
90+1', Talles Magno 🟨,
90+1', Vallecilla G. 🟨,
90+3', Rivero O. ↓, Chala Rosales W. J. ↑,
90+4', Gustavo Henrique 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-3.

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Corinthians could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently opponents have a series of home games.

In this match Corinthians is certain favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Corinthians won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corinthians
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
09.03.25	Corinthians - Santos	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.03.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Corinthians	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
02.03.25	Corinthians - Mirassol	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
26.02.25	Corinthians - Universidad Central	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
23.02.25	Corinthians - Guarani	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLWWT
- Barcelona Guayaquil
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
08.03.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Independiente del Valle	0:4 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.03.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Corinthians	3:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.03.25	Libertad Loja - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:4 ✺
Copa Libertadores
26.02.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - El Nacional	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.02.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Mushuc Runa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
05.03.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Corinthians	3:0

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