Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Final

Date: 5 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha (Guayaquil)

Referee: Herrera D. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Fox Sports, Mi Telefe
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Colombia	ESPN
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	Sportdigital+
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	ESPN 2
Netherlands	ESPN 2
Peru	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	beIN Sports
Turkey	S Sport+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz
Venezuela	ESPN
World	Disney+, Pluto TV


	Barcelona Guayaquil		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.25	2.15	Watch
	3.3	3.2	2.25
	3.3	3.1	2.25	Watch
	3.41	3.11	2.29
	3.42	3.11	2.29	Watch
	3.25	3	2.2	Watch
	3.47	3.29	2.23	Watch
	3.3	3.1	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.34 ↑ (3.03)	3.15 ↓ (3.28)	2.24 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barcelona Guayaquil
28.2%

Draw
29.9%

Corinthians
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

29%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

29.4%

40.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barcelona Guayaquil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona Guayaquil than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	28.6%	57.1%

Barcelona Guayaquil - Corinthians Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Corinthians will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Contreras J. (G) 18. Carabali B. 14. Rangel A. 3. Arreaga X. 4. Vallecilla G. 23. Arroyo D. 22. Souza de Almeida L. 30. Oyola B. 21. Valiente J. 13. Corozo J. 9. Rivero O.	1. Hugo Souza (G) 3. Torres F. 13. Gustavo Henrique 47. Joao Pedro 2. Matheuzinho 80. Alex Santana 27. Breno Bidon 46. Hugo 10. Depay M. 8. Garro R. 9. Yuri Alberto
Substitutes
10. Caicedo F. 41. Calle P. 37. Campi G. 6. Chala A. 29. Chala Rosales W. J. 8. Cortez Casierra G. J. 7. Gomez J. 31. Luque D. 35. Pinargote Lara K. D. (G) 28. Quinonez Ruiz J. R. 33. Usma J. 27. Vargas W.	5. Andre Ramalho 11. Angel Romero 25. Caca 19. Carrillo A. 35. Charles Rigon 22. Hernandez H. 59. Joao Vitor 21. Matheus Bidu 32. Matheus Donelli (G) 7. Maycon 37. Ryan 43. Talles Magno
Coaches
Castillo S.	Diaz R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', Torres F. 🟨,
42', Hugo Souza 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 0, Corozo J. (Pen),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Joao Pedro ↓, Andre Ramalho ↑,
46', Torres F. ↓, Carrillo A. ↑,
56', Souza de Almeida L. 🟨,
65', Alex Santana ↓, Maycon ↑,
65', Garro R. ↓, Angel Romero ↑,
76', Depay M. ↓, Talles Magno ↑,
77', Hugo 🟨,
78', Valiente J. ↓, Cortez Casierra G. J. ↑,
81', 2 - 0, Rivero O. ⚽,
83', Corozo J. 🟨,
84', 3 - 0, Corozo J. ⚽,
87', Oyola B. ↓, Quinonez Ruiz J. R. ↑,
88', Rivero O. ↓, Vargas W. ↑,
89', Gustavo Henrique 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Barcelona in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Corinthians is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Barcelona could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Corinthians will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barcelona Guayaquil
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.03.25	Libertad Loja - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:4 ✺
Copa Libertadores
26.02.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - El Nacional	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.02.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Mushuc Runa	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.02.25	El Nacional - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
14.02.25	Manta - Barcelona Guayaquil	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WTWWW
- Corinthians
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
02.03.25	Corinthians - Mirassol	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
26.02.25	Corinthians - Universidad Central	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
23.02.25	Corinthians - Guarani	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.02.25	Universidad Central - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.25	Portuguesa - Corinthians	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WWTTT

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