Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 23

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Sao Januário (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Brazil	Premiere
Colombia	Win Sports
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Laola1
Israel	Sport 1
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	TV Globo Internacional


	Vasco da Gama		Santos

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.50	4.00	Watch
	1.93	3.40	4.00
	1.91	3.40	3.90	Watch
	1.99	3.52	4.34
	1.94	3.46	4.11	Watch
	1.94	3.40	4.20
	2.01	3.60	3.91	Watch
	1.96	3.50	4.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.92)	3.47 ↑ (3.42)	4.07 ↑ (3.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
49.1%

Draw
27.5%

Santos
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

27.3%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.1%

28.1%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+1%)

The ML Model estimate for Santos aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Vasco da Gama - Santos Predictions

Users Predictions: Vasco da Gama will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 46. Cuesta C. 30. Robert Renan 6. Lucas Piton 23. Thiago Mendes (C) 8. Jair 11. Gomez A. 3. Tche Tche 9. Colidio F. 77. Spinelli C.	77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 18. Igor Vinicius 15. Willian Arao 14. Luan Peres 31. Escobar G. 28. Oliva C. 5. Joao Schmidt 17. Caballero G. 10. Neymar (C) 22. Barreal A. 9. Gabriel Barbosa
Substitutes
28. Adson 88. Cauan Barros 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 7. David 18. Hinestroza M. 43. Lucas Freitas 17. Moreira N. 83. Ramon Rique 82. Riquelme Avellar 2. Rodriguez J. 10. Rojas J. 5. Sosa S.	1. Diogenes (G) 27. Fernandes D. 48. Gustavo Henrique 42. Joao Alencar 26. Joao Ananias 34. Joao Paulo (G) 30. Miguelito 81. Pierri S. 7. Robinho Jr. 32. Rollheiser B. 11. Rony 16. Thaciano
Coaches
Emanuel P.	Cuca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Jair ↓, Sosa S. ↑,
39', Robert Renan 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
62', Oliva C. ↓, Gustavo Henrique ↑,
62', Barreal A. ↓, Rony ↑,
63', Caballero G. ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
65', Colidio F. ↓, Hinestroza M. ↑,
65', Spinelli C. ↓, David ↑,
66', Lucas Piton ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
68', 0 - 1, Gabriel Barbosa ⚽, Rollheiser B. (A),
69', Gabriel Barbosa ↓, Thaciano ↑,
75', Tche Tche ↓, Moreira N. ↑,
77', 0 - 2, Willian Arao ⚽,
81', 0 - 3, Luan Peres ⚽,
84', Paulo Henrique 🟨,
89', Joao Schmidt ↓, Joao Ananias ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 2.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Recently, Santos has had a series of home games.

Vasco might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Vasco: Cuiabano (Yellow Cards) Mateus Carvalho (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Santos: Gustavo Henrique (Hamstring Injury) Igor Vinicius (Back Injury) Lucas Verissimo (Calf Injury) Moises (Ankle Injury) Pepe Fermino (Muscle Injury) Vinicius Lira (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Vasco: Brenner (Injury)

There are questionable in Santos: Gabriel Bontempo (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 24:30. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Santos	29	11	9	9	45:43	2	42
14	Vasco	29	9	8	12	36:42	-6	35

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Copa Sudamericana
13.08.26	Vasco da Gama - Olimpia Asuncion	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.26	Bahia - Vasco da Gama	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
05.08.26	Fluminense - Vasco da Gama	1:3 ✺
01.08.26	Vasco da Gama - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
29.07.26	Vasco da Gama - Independiente Medellín	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 TTWTW
- Santos FC
Copa Sudamericana
13.08.26	Santos - Deportivo Macará	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.26	Santos - Athletico Paranaense	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
04.08.26	Remo - Santos	0:1 ✺
01.08.26	Santos - Remo	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.07.26	Santos - Universidad Central	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
26.02.26	Santos - Vasco da Gama	2:1
17.08.25	Santos - Vasco da Gama	0:6
30.03.25	Vasco da Gama - Santos	2:1
01.10.23	Santos - Vasco da Gama	4:1
14.05.23	Vasco da Gama - Santos	0:1
20.12.20	Vasco da Gama - Santos	1:0
02.09.20	Santos - Vasco da Gama	2:2

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