Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 28

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol)

Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Usa	Fanatiz


	Mirassol		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.6	3.6	Watch
	2.05	3.50	3.50
	2.02	3.4	3.45	Watch
	2.09	3.67	3.72
	2.04	3.79	3.4	Watch
	2.02	3.6	3.65
	2.06	3.61	3.59	Watch
	2.05	3.5	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.21)	3.58 ↑ (3.35)	3.53 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mirassol
46.6%

Draw
26.5%

Botafogo RJ
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

27.7%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

25.8%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mirassol that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Botafogo RJ could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Mirassol - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Mirassol will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Botafogo will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Walter (G) 32. Igor Formiga 34. Joao Victor (C) 3. Willian Machado 6. Reinaldo 27. Denilson 25. Neto Moura 95. Edson Carioca 33. Eduardo 10. Chico Kim 30. Bruno Santos	12. Gabriel Batista (G) 2. Vitinho 5. Ferraresi N. 33. Monzon L. 13. Alex Telles (C) 6. Medina C. 75. Huguinho 8. Danilo Santos 10. Montoro A. 90. Danilo Pereira 19. Arthur Cabral
Substitutes
9. Andre Luis 96. Carlos Eduardo 20. Daniel Borges 17. Fernandinho 44. Gabriel Knesowitsch 19. Gustavo Silva 5. Japa 2. Lucas Oliveira 7. Shaylon 90. Thomazella (G) 80. Wallisson 99. Ze Roberto	25. Allan 3. Arthur Chaves 88. Edenilson 7. Junior Santos 34. Justino G. 42. Kadu Santos 59. Kauan Toledo 21. Marcal 9. Tiquinho Soares 77. Villalba Jaume L. M. 17. Warleson (G) 22. Ziyech H.
Coaches
Rafael Guanaes	Dias Bellao R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Eduardo ⚽, Igor Formiga (A),
35', Huguinho 🟨,
45+2', 2 - 0, Eduardo ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Danilo Pereira ↓, Ziyech H. ↑,
46', Montoro A. ↓, Edenilson ↑,
46', Huguinho ↓, Junior Santos ↑,
61', Arthur Cabral ↓, Villalba Jaume L. M. ↑,
67', Eduardo ↓, Shaylon ↑,
76', Denilson ↓, Wallisson ↑,
77', Edson Carioca ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
77', Medina C. ↓, Kauan Toledo ↑,
89', Igor Formiga ↓, Daniel Borges ↑,
90', Bruno Santos ↓, Ze Roberto ↑,

Preview

A balanced mid-table encounter with both sides eager to climb into upper positions (ranked 15th and 11th in the Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Mirassol could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Botafogo has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Mirassol is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Mirassol: Alesson (Yellow Cards) Jose Aldo (Muscle Injury) Negueba (Knee Injury) Walter (Injury).

Confirmed absences for Botafogo: Barrera J. (Injury) Kaio Pantaleao (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Mirassol: Gustavo Silva (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Botafogo: Matheus Martins (Inactive).

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Mirassol has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 5:6 (averaging 1.7:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Mirassol against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 0:0 goals.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Mirassol: 0.85% Botafogo RJ: 0.16%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Botafogo RJ	29	9	8	12	42:47	-5	35
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34:43	-9	33

Last Results with these Odds

Botafogo RJ - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 30.37%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A
13.09.26	Mirassol - Vitória Salvador	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Coritiba - Mirassol	1:2 ✺
02.09.26	Flamengo - Mirassol	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	Mirassol - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	Santos - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TWLTT
- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
16.09.26	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	Botafogo RJ - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Botafogo RJ - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Flamengo - Botafogo RJ	3:0 ✺
24.08.26	Botafogo RJ - Athletico Paranaense	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
01.04.26	Botafogo RJ - Mirassol	3:2
01.11.25	Mirassol - Botafogo RJ	0:0
17.09.25	Botafogo RJ - Mirassol	3:3

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