Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE A - ROUND 2

Date: 23 April 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio Couto Pereira (Curitiba)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)


	Coritiba		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.2	2.63	Watch
	2.7	3.2	2.65
	2.9	3.2	2.5
	2.87	3.2	2.73
	2.72	3.24	2.63	Watch
	2.7	3.15	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↓ (2.99)	3.2 ↑ (3.08)	2.62 ↑ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Coritiba
34.2%

Draw
29.7%

Fortaleza
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

30.2%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

30%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Coritiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	33.3%	25%

Coritiba - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Coritiba will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Coritiba: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Coritiba has the most likely position - 20 (15.55%), project points - 39, currently - 0, a chance of relegated (49%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Fortaleza has the most likely position - 13 (6.69%), project points - 49, currently - 1, a chance of relegated (21%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 44, importance 37, match rating 41. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Coritiba won 2.

Recent matches Coritiba is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Fortaleza is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Fortaleza could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Coritiba: Henrique (Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Coritiba won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Coritiba won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie A
16.04.23	Flamengo - Coritiba	3:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.04.23	Coritiba - Sport Recife	3:3 ✺
14.03.23	Coritiba - Criciúma	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
11.03.23	Coritiba - FC Cascavel	0:0 ✺
05.03.23	FC Cascavel - Coritiba	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LTWTL
- Fortaleza EC
Copa Sudamericana
20.04.23	San Lorenzo - Fortaleza	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
15.04.23	Fortaleza - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
11.04.23	Fortaleza - Águia de Marabá	6:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
08.04.23	Ceará - Fortaleza	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.04.23	Fortaleza - Palestino	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
27.10.22	Fortaleza - Coritiba	3:1
03.07.22	Coritiba - Fortaleza	2:1
04.02.21	Fortaleza - Coritiba	3:1
10.10.20	Coritiba - Fortaleza	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
23.11.18	Coritiba - Fortaleza	1:0
04.08.18	Fortaleza - Coritiba	2:1
Copa do Brasil
13.05.15	Coritiba - Fortaleza	3:1 penalties

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