Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 18

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Rodrigues F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol


	Flamengo		Coritiba

	1	X	2
	1.37	5	7	Watch
	1.39	4.7	7.4
	1.42	5.11	8.2
	1.43	4.68	7.51
	1.4	4.5	6.5
	1.4	5.13	7.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↑ (1.35)	4.85 ↑ (4.68)	7.36 ↓ (8.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flamengo
67.6%

Draw
19.5%

Coritiba
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.6%

19.8%

11.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.7%

18.7%

10.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flamengo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Coritiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Flamengo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	7.7%	15.4%

Flamengo - Coritiba Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Flamengo will win (votes: 20 - 76.9%). Coritiba will win (votes: 4 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 60.7% – 93.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Flamengo will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rossi A. (G) 22. Emerson Royal 3. Leo Ortiz 44. Vitao 6. Ayrton Lucas 7. Luiz Araujo 5. Pulgar E. 52. Evertton Araujo 16. Samuel Lino 9. Pedro 27. Bruno Henrique (C)	22. Pedro Rangel (G) 44. Joao Pedro Chermont 23. Tiago Coser 55. Jacy 26. Bruno Melo 21. Thiago Santos 19. Gomez S. (C) 7. Lavega J. 10. Josue 77. Breno Lopes 32. Pedro Rocha
Substitutes
59. Alan 51. Daniel Sales 87. Daniel Thuram 42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 49. Dyogo Alves (G) 11. Everton 77. Goes J. 61. Joao Souza 79. Joshua 75. Mariano L. 8. Niguez S. 64. Wallace Yan	28. Fabinho 6. Felipe Jonatan 88. Fernando Sobral 39. Gustavo 13. Keiller (G) 11. Lucas Ronier 86. Lucas Taverna 78. Renato Marques 4. Rodrigo Moledo 36. Vini Paulista 8. Wallisson 29. Willian Oliveira
Coaches
Jardim L.	Fernando Seabra

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Samuel Lino ⚽, Pedro (A),
19', Leo Ortiz ↓, Joao Souza ↑,
36', Pedro Rocha 🟥,
41', Pulgar E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Joao Pedro Chermont ↓, Lucas Taverna ↑,
54', Evertton Araujo 🟨,
60', 2 - 0, Pedro ⚽, Samuel Lino (A),
63', Josue ↓, Gustavo ↑,
63', Thiago Santos ↓, Vini Paulista ↑,
63', Lavega J. ↓, Felipe Jonatan ↑,
70', 3 - 0, Samuel Lino ⚽, Ayrton Lucas (A),
75', Samuel Lino ↓, Everton ↑,
76', Pulgar E. ↓, Niguez S. ↑,
84', Luiz Araujo 🟨,
85', Luiz Araujo ↓, Wallace Yan ↑,
85', Pedro ↓, Joshua ↑,
88', Gomez S. ↓, Wallisson ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Flamengo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Flamengo is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Flamengo: Alex Sandro (International duty) Carrascal J. (Red Card) Danilo (International duty) Jorginho (Toe Injury) Leo Pereira (Yellow Cards) Lucas Paqueta (International duty) Plata G. (International duty) Varela G. (Yellow Cards) de Arrascaeta G. (International duty) de la Cruz N. (International duty)

There will not play in Coritiba: Keno (Knee Injury) Maicon (Inactive) Pedro Morisco (Shoulder Injury) Rodrigo Rodrigues (Ankle Injury) Tinga (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Coritiba: Lavega J. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 14 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:17. (average 1.7:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Flamengo won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 23:10. (average 2.3:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Flamengo RJ	29	18	7	4	57:25	32	61
10	Coritiba	29	10	8	11	37:47	-10	38

Last Results with these Odds

Flamengo - the odds 1.35 are the expected chance of winning is 68.59%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flamengo RJ
Copa Libertadores
26.05.26	Flamengo - Cusco	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
23.05.26	Flamengo - Palmeiras	0:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
20.05.26	Flamengo - Estudiantes La Plata	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.26	Athletico Paranaense - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	Vitória Salvador - Flamengo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLWTL
- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie A
25.05.26	Coritiba - Bahia	3:2 ✺
17.05.26	Santos - Coritiba	0:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Coritiba - Santos	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.05.26	Coritiba - Internacional RS	2:2 ✺
02.05.26	Vitória Salvador - Coritiba	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
20.08.23	Coritiba - Flamengo	2:3
16.04.23	Flamengo - Coritiba	3:0
06.11.22	Coritiba - Flamengo	1:0
16.07.22	Flamengo - Coritiba	2:0
Copa do Brasil
16.06.21	Flamengo - Coritiba	2:0
10.06.21	Coritiba - Flamengo	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
21.11.20	Flamengo - Coritiba	3:1

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