Match Info

Serie A - Round 32

Date: 26 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio Couto Pereira (Curitiba) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Abatti R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Bosnia And Herzegovina	23:30	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	19:30	Globoplay, Premiere
Colombia	17:30	Win play, Win Sports
Ecuador	17:30	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Peru	17:30	Liga 1 Max
Russia	01:30	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV
Usa	18:30	Fanatiz


	Coritiba		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.25	3.20	Watch
	2.20	3.40	3.20
	2.15	3.3	3.15	Watch
	2.29	3.54	3.28
	2.22	3.6	3.14	Watch
	2.2	3.5	3.2
	2.24	3.45	3.28	Watch
	2.18	3.3	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (2.13)	3.42 ↓ (3.49)	3.21 ↓ (3.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Coritiba
42.8%

Draw
27.7%

Grêmio
29.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.6%

27.2%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

27.8%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Coritiba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	18.2%	0%

Coritiba - Grêmio Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Grêmio (2.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Grêmio (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Coritiba will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pedro Morisco (G) 2. Tinga 23. Tiago Coser 55. Jacy (C) 26. Bruno Melo 5. Fonseca N. 19. Gomez S. 7. Lavega J. 10. Josue 32. Pedro Rocha 18. Paulo Roberto	1. Weverton (G) 6. Gustavo Martins 2. Fabian Balbuena 82. Wallace 27. Diego Caito 8. Noriega E. 20. Villasanti M. (C) 23. Marlon 7. Pavon C. 95. Carlos Vinicius 9. Amuzu F.
Substitutes
77. Breno Lopes 14. Bustos F. 28. Fabinho 6. Felipe Jonatan 13. Keiller (G) 3. Maicon 17. Ocampo B. 25. Richard 4. Rodrigo Moledo 99. Rodrigo Rodrigues 50. Tissi 36. Vini Paulista	50. Bernardo Zortea 22. Braithwaite M. 38. Caio Paulista 17. Dodi 99. Enamorado J. 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 18. Joao Pedro 10. Krovinovic F. 14. Marcos Rocha 30. Matheus Nascimento 11. Tete 3. Wagner Leonardo
Coaches
Fernando Seabra	Renato Gaucho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Diego Caito ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
40', Tinga 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', Pavon C. ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
59', Fabian Balbuena ↓, Krovinovic F. ↑,
60', Pedro Rocha ↓, Breno Lopes ↑,
69', Tinga ↓, Bustos F. ↑,
69', Gomez S. ↓, Richard ↑,
76', Lavega J. ↓, Ocampo B. ↑,
77', Fonseca N. ↓, Tissi ↑,
82', Noriega E. ↓, Braithwaite M. ↑,
82', Marlon ↓, Caio Paulista ↑,
90+2', 0 - 1, Braithwaite M. ⚽, Amuzu F. (A),

Preview

A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 12th and 18th in the Relegation - Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Coritiba won 0.

The recent form of both sides has fallen below expectations.

Grêmio could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Coritiba holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Coritiba: Lucas Ronier (Knee Injury) Lucas Taverna (Inactive) Richard (Inactive) Thiago Santos (Yellow Cards).

Confirmed absences for Grêmio: Cabral J. (Inactive) Nardoni J. (Inactive) Walter Kannemann (Red Card).

Doubtful / questionable for Grêmio: Danilo Barbosa (Injury) Matheus Nascimento (Inactive).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Coritiba has recorded 6 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 20:24 (averaging 1:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Coritiba against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 13:6 goals (averaging 1.4:0.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Coritiba	32	10	9	13	38:50	-12	39
17	Gremio	32	8	10	14	35:44	-9	34

Last Results with these Odds

Coritiba - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 44.63%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Grêmio - the odds 3.38 are the expected chance of winning is 28.13%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie A
17.10.26	Atlético Mineiro - Coritiba	1:0 ✺
12.10.26	Coritiba - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
08.10.26	Fluminense - Coritiba	4:0 ✺
19.09.26	Vasco da Gama - Coritiba	5:0 ✺
11.09.26	Coritiba - Athletico Paranaense	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LTLLT
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
18.10.26	Grêmio - Cruzeiro	2:4 ✺
11.10.26	Grêmio - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
07.10.26	Remo - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Grêmio - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
16.09.26	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Grêmio - Coritiba	1:0
01.11.23	Coritiba - Grêmio	1:2
25.06.23	Grêmio - Coritiba	5:1
31.01.21	Coritiba - Grêmio	1:1
07.10.20	Grêmio - Coritiba	2:1
15.10.17	Coritiba - Grêmio	0:1
22.06.17	Grêmio - Coritiba	2:0

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