Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 26

Date: 29 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego (Kraków)

Referee: Krasny S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV


	Cracovia		Puszcza Niepołomice

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.9	5	Watch
	1.68	3.7	4.75
	1.68	3.8	4.7	Watch
	1.74	3.91	4.67
	1.67	3.93	5.05	Watch
	1.7	3.6	4.6
	1.65	3.92	5.01	Watch
	1.68	3.8	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.69)	3.82 ↑ (3.81)	4.81 ↑ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cracovia
55.8%

Draw
24.6%

Puszcza Niepołomice
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

24.6%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.2%

27.1%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cracovia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Puszcza Niepołomice has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cracovia than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cracovia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Puszcza Niepołomice than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Cracovia - Puszcza Niepołomice Predictions

Users Predictions: Cracovia will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Madejski S. (G) 24. Jugas J. 4. Henriksson G. 5. Ghita V. 25. Kakabadze O. 88. Sokolowski P. 11. Maigaard M. 19. Olafsson D. 14. Hasic A. 9. Kallman B. 10. Minchev M.	1. Komar K. (G) 22. Craciun A. 4. Szymonowicz D. 3. Yakuba R. 18. Siplak M. 8. Mrozinski P. 88. Zhukov G. 14. Serafin J. 33. Abramowicz D. 24. Blagaic J. 35. Kosidis M.
Substitutes
6. Al Ammari A. 16. Biedrzycki B. 23. Bzdyl F. 77. Janasik P. 39. Perkovic M. 27. Ravas H. (G) 63. Rozga F. 21. Smiglewski K. 66. Wojcik O.	63. Barkovsky G. 11. Cholewiak M. 7. Klimek A. 31. Perchel M. (G) 9. Siemaszko A. 27. Solowiej L. 19. Stec J. 5. Stepien K. 12. Stepien M.
Coaches
Kroczek D.	Tulacz T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Kosidis M. ⚽, Abramowicz D. (A),
17', Minchev M. 🟨,
28', Serafin J. 🟨,
39', Kallman B. 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Kakabadze O. ⚽, Jugas J. (A),
45+4', 2 - 1, Kallman B. ⚽, Hasic A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Abramowicz D. ↓, Stepien M. ↑,
46', Szymonowicz D. ↓, Cholewiak M. ↑,
50', 3 - 1, Minchev M. ⚽, Hasic A. (A),
54', Zhukov G. ↓, Stepien K. ↑,
54', Craciun A. ↓, Solowiej L. ↑,
70', Minchev M. ↓, Smiglewski K. ↑,
77', Sokolowski P. ↓, Al Ammari A. ↑,
77', Hasic A. ↓, Rozga F. ↑,
80', Smiglewski K. 🟨,
84', Blagaic J. ↓, Barkovsky G. ↑,
90+1', Serafin J. 🟥,
90+3', Jugas J. ↓, Wojcik O. ↑,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 7 and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cracovia won 2.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Puszcza could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Cracovia is a favorite.

There will not play in Cracovia: Glik K. (Knee Injury) van Buren M. (Red Card)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Cracovia won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14:9 (average 1.8:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Cracovia won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:5 (average 1.8:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cracovia Krakow
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.03.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Cracovia	5:2 ✺
08.03.25	Cracovia - Radomiak Radom	1:2 ✺
28.02.25	Górnik Zabrze - Cracovia	0:1 ✺
23.02.25	Cracovia - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:2 ✺
14.02.25	Cracovia - Korona Kielce	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLWTT
- Puszcza Niepołomice
Polish Ekstraklasa
16.03.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Piast Gliwice	2:1 ✺
07.03.25	Korona Kielce - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:1 ✺
02.03.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Motor Lublin	0:1 ✺
Polish Cup
27.02.25	Polonia Warsaw - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:2 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
23.02.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Puszcza Niepołomice	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
10.01.25	Cracovia - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:3
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.09.24	Puszcza Niepołomice - Cracovia	1:2
21.04.24	Cracovia - Puszcza Niepołomice	0:1
21.10.23	Puszcza Niepołomice - Cracovia	1:1
Club Friendly
13.01.21	Cracovia - Puszcza Niepołomice	3:1
14.07.18	Puszcza Niepołomice - Cracovia	0:3
13.01.18	Cracovia - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:0

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