Match Info

League Two - Round 33

Date: 17 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: Alexandra Stadium (Crewe)

Referee: Martin R. (Eng)


	Crewe Alexandra		Fleetwood Town

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.3	3.1
	2.18	3.45	3.05
	2.25	3.48	3.2
	2.15	3.45	3.19	Watch
	2.1	3.25	3.2
	2.16	3.36	3.2	Watch
	2.22	3.4	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (1.91)	3.38 ↓ (3.55)	3.15 ↓ (3.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crewe Alexandra
42.9%

Draw
27.5%

Fleetwood Town
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

26.2%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

26.1%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crewe Alexandra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Crewe Alexandra's form might have worsened.

Fleetwood Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Crewe Alexandra, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fleetwood Town than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Crewe Alexandra - Fleetwood Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Crewe (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Fleetwood (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Crewe Alexandra will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Crewe (votes: 1 - 50%). Fleetwood (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Lawlor I. (G) 2. Billington L. (C) 18. Connolly J. 25. Pond A. 3. Hutchinson R. 23. Powell J. 19. Lunt O. 26. O'Reilly T. 17. Holicek M. 20. Agius C. 29. Thibaut A.	13. Lynch J. (G) 26. Rooney S. 35. Haughey C. 32. Hughes K. 20. Neal H. 16. Ennis E. 6. Bonds E. (C) 10. Helm M. 22. Powell J. 29. Devonport O. 9. Davies W.
Substitutes
9. Bogle O. 1. Booth T. (G) 30. Dancey S. 5. Demetriou M. 14. Finney C. 24. March J. 32. Moore L.	24. Clark M. 17. Evans C. 37. Hewitson L. (G) 38. McLean C. 44. Mullarkey T. 7. Osong D. E. 8. Virtue-Thick M.
Coaches
Bell L.	Lawlor M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Helm M. ⚽,
32', Powell J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Powell J. ↓, Clark M. ↑,
46', Lunt O. ↓, March J. ↑,
57', Holicek M. ↓, Demetriou M. ↑,
67', Ennis E. 🟨,
68', O'Reilly T. ↓, Bogle O. ↑,
75', Davies W. ↓, Evans C. ↑,
82', Rooney S. 🟨,
83', Powell J. ↓, Moore L. ↑,
90+2', Bonds E. ↓, Virtue-Thick M. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Crewe won 2.

Crewe is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Fleetwood is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fleetwood may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Crewe might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Crewe: Lankester J. (Knee Injury) Sanders M. H. (Inactive) Tabiner J. (Knee Injury) Tezgel E. (Ankle Injury) Tracey S. (Broken Leg)

There will not play in Fleetwood: Hume D. (Inactive) Johnson W. (Inactive) Potter F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Fleetwood: Bolton J. (Inactive) McCann L. (Inactive) Norwood J. (Inactive)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Crewe won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 15:23. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Crewe won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 1.2:1.8).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Crewe: 3.91%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Crewe	10	4	6	0	12:7	5	18
16	Fleetwood	10	2	5	3	10:11	-1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Crewe Alexandra - the odds 1.91 are the expected chance of winning is 48.65%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crewe Alexandra
English League Two
14.02.26	Crewe Alexandra - Gillingham	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Crawley Town - Crewe Alexandra	0:1 ✺
03.02.26	Barnet - Crewe Alexandra	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Crewe Alexandra - Colchester United	1:0 ✺
27.01.26	Bromley - Crewe Alexandra	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 WWTWT
- Fleetwood Town
English League Two
14.02.26	Oldham Athletic - Fleetwood Town	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Fleetwood Town - Bromley	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Fleetwood Town - Notts County	1:2 ✺
27.01.26	Harrogate Town - Fleetwood Town	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Colchester United - Fleetwood Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
19.08.25	Fleetwood Town - Crewe Alexandra	1:4
04.03.25	Crewe Alexandra - Fleetwood Town	1:4
22.10.24	Fleetwood Town - Crewe Alexandra	0:1
English League One
02.04.22	Crewe Alexandra - Fleetwood Town	1:3
16.10.21	Fleetwood Town - Crewe Alexandra	3:0
20.04.21	Fleetwood Town - Crewe Alexandra	0:2
26.12.20	Crewe Alexandra - Fleetwood Town	1:1

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