Match Info

Catarinense - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Heriberto Hülse (Criciúma)


	Criciúma		Chapecoense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.29	2.76	3.59
	28.34	10.23	1.06	Watch
	2.2	2.7	3.4
	2.25	2.68	3.55
	2.28	2.66	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.47 ↑ (2.17)	4.21 ↑ (2.87)	3.02 ↓ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Criciúma
19%

Draw
33.8%

Chapecoense
47.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

31.7%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

33.3%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Criciúma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-22.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Criciúma's form might have worsened.

Chapecoense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chapecoense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (+25.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Criciúma, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-22%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chapecoense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Criciúma - Chapecoense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alisson (G) 7. Diego Goncalves 5. Eduardo 8. Guilherme Lobo 10. Jhonata Robert 4. Luciano Castan 22. Marcelo Hermes 6. Marcinho 9. Nicolas 3. Rodrigo (C) 11. Waguininho	12. Leo Vieira (G) 33. Bruno Leonardo 27. Camilo Reijers 37. Clar W. 3. Eduardo Doma 26. Everton 77. Italo 20. Jean Carlos 7. Marcinho 99. Rafael Carvalheira 25. Victor Caetano
Substitutes
18. Bidu 13. Cesar Martins 12. Georgemy (G) 15. Jean Irmer 21. Joao Carlos 17. Kaua Lira 23. Leo Mana 14. Octavio Henrique 20. Sandry 19. Thales 16. Thiaguinho 2. Willean Lepo	11. Bolasie Y. 19. David Antunes 22. Higor Meritao 5. Joao Vitor 21. Kauan 90. Mailson 2. Marcos Vinicius 1. Rafael Santos (G) 8. Robert Conceicao 70. Rubens Ricoldi 35. Vinicius
Coaches
Eduardo Baptista	Gilmar Pozzo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
17', 0 - 1, Everton ⚽,
26', Luciano Castan 🟨,
34', 0 - 2, Marcinho ⚽,
37', Guilherme Lobo 🟥,
45+2', Leo Vieira 🟨,
45+4', Bruno Leonardo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Bruno Leonardo ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
46', Clar W. ↓, Marcos Vinicius ↑,
46', Marcinho ↓, Bolasie Y. ↑,
46', Nicolas ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
46', Diego Goncalves ↓, Willean Lepo ↑,
46', Marcinho ↓, Jean Irmer ↑,
64', Jean Carlos ↓, Robert Conceicao ↑,
64', Jhonata Robert ↓, Sandry ↑,
69', Waguininho 🟨,
74', 1 - 2, Waguininho ⚽,
75', Rafael Carvalheira ↓, Higor Meritao ↑,
80', Higor Meritao 🟨,
82', Waguininho ↓, Hiago Alves ↑,
89', Joao Vitor 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 2.

Criciúma is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Chapecoense is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Criciúma may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Criciúma might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 18:20. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Criciúma won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 0.9:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Criciúma - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 41.93%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Chapecoense - the odds 3.44 are the expected chance of winning is 26.39%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
25.01.26	Criciúma - Brusque	3:3 ✺
22.01.26	Camboriú - Criciúma	1:2 ✺
19.01.26	Criciúma - Concórdia	3:1 ✺
15.01.26	Joinville - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	Criciúma - Avaí	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TWWTW
- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Chapecoense - Santos	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
25.01.26	Chapecoense - Joinville	6:0 ✺
21.01.26	Avaí - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Chapecoense - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:0 ✺
14.01.26	Concórdia - Chapecoense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
07.09.25	Criciúma - Chapecoense	2:0
04.05.25	Chapecoense - Criciúma	2:1
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
01.02.25	Chapecoense - Criciúma	0:0
02.03.24	Criciúma - Chapecoense	2:0
Brazilian Serie B
13.10.23	Criciúma - Chapecoense	1:2
24.06.23	Chapecoense - Criciúma	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
22.01.23	Chapecoense - Criciúma	1:1

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