Match Info

Serie C - Group C - Round 30

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadio Ezio Scida (Crotone)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253


	Crotone		Cavese

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.7	3.25	4.95	Watch
	1.71	3.38	5.43
	1.68	3.32	5.26	Watch
	1.7	3	4.8
	1.66	3.22	5.31	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.6)	3.23 ↓ (3.88)	5.15 ↑ (4.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crotone
54%

Draw
28.2%

Cavese
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.4%

23.7%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.6%

23.2%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crotone has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Cavese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crotone than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cavese than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Crotone - Cavese Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Crotone (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Cavese (3.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Crotone will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Crotone (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Cavese (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Merelli D. (G) 35. Novella M. 72. Cocetta N. 6. Di Pasquale D. 23. Groppelli F. 16. Gallo A. 7. Vinicius 21. Sandri M. 18. Piovanello E. 9. Gomez G. 96. Zunno M.	12. Boffelli V. (G) 17. Nunziata F. 15. Cionek T. 13. Evangelisti N. 70. Ubani M. 23. Munari D. 90. Visconti E. 10. Fella G. 33. Yabre M. 7. Minaj E. 16. Ubaldi L.
Substitutes
13. Armini N. 80. Bruno K. 32. Calvano S. 11. Energe A. 25. Guerra W. 27. Maggio M. 19. Marazzotti F. 14. Meli M. 10. Musso A. 76. Paciotti G. (G) 12. Pio Martino A. (G) 17. Russo D. 77. Vrenna M.	73. Bolcano D. 11. Diarrassouba A. 9. Gudjohnsen S. 45. Imparato C. 3. Luciani A. 28. Macchi M. 20. Maiolo F. 22. Manzo F. (G) 24. Orlando F. 25. Peretti M. 99. Sposito A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Gomez G. ⚽,
33', Gallo A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gallo A. ↓, Meli M. ↑,
52', 2 - 0, Gomez G. (Penalty Awarded),
60', Fella G. 🟨,
63', Cionek T. ↓, Bolcano D. ↑,
63', Munari D. ↓, Maiolo F. ↑,
63', Visconti E. ↓, Diarrassouba A. ↑,
65', Gomez G. ↓, Musso A. ↑,
65', Sandri M. ↓, Calvano S. ↑,
72', Piovanello E. ↓, Energe A. ↑,
74', Ubaldi L. ↓, Gudjohnsen S. ↑,
77', Calvano S. 🟨,
79', Yabre M. ↓, Orlando F. ↑,
85', Groppelli F. ↓, Guerra W. ↑,
90+3', Novella M. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 14).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Crotone is considered a favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Crotone won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Crotone won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Cavese	8	3	2	3	14:14	0	11
20	Crotone	9	1	3	5	10:15	-5	0

Last Results with these Odds

Crotone - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 57.44%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Crotone
Italian Serie C Group C
01.03.26	Monopoli - Crotone	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Crotone - Foggia	3:1 ✺
14.02.26	Picerno - Crotone	3:1 ✺
10.02.26	Casertana - Crotone	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Crotone - Atalanta U23	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TWLTW
- USD Cavese 1919
Italian Serie C Group C
28.02.26	Cavese - Audace Cerignola	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Trapani - Cavese	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Cavese - Salernitana	1:1 ✺
10.02.26	Cavese - Monopoli	1:0 ✺
06.02.26	Latina - Cavese	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group C
25.10.25	Cavese - Crotone	1:0
04.01.25	Crotone - Cavese	1:1
02.09.24	Cavese - Crotone	2:1

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