Match Info

Date: 12 December 2020, Saturday


	Crotone		Spezia

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.4	2.8	Watch
	2.55	3.4	2.75
	2.55	3.4	2.7	Watch
	2.55	3.25	2.8
	2.66	3.38	2.86
	2.6	3.25	2.8	Watch
	2.65	3.38	2.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.57)	3.35 ↓ (3.46)	2.79 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crotone
37.1%

Draw
28.6%

Spezia
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.1%

27.6%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

21.5%

45.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Crotone have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crotone than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Crotone that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Spezia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20.7%	34.5%	44.8%

Crotone - Spezia Predictions

Users Predictions: 58 users predict this event. Crotone will win (votes: 12 - 20.7%). Spezia will win (votes: 26 - 44.8%). It will Tie (votes: 20 - 34.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Spezia: 32% – 57.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

No spectators.

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 15).

Crotone has a good chance of relegated (72%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Spezia has a chance of relegated (27%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Crotone has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Spezia is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Crotone won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 10-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Crotone won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Crotone
Italian Serie A
06.12.20	Crotone - Napoli	0:4 ✺
29.11.20	Bologna - Crotone	1:0 ✺
21.11.20	Crotone - Lazio	0:2 ✺
08.11.20	Torino - Crotone	0:0 ✺
31.10.20	Crotone - Atalanta	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLLTL
- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie A
05.12.20	Spezia - Lazio	1:2 ✺
29.11.20	Cagliari - Spezia	2:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
25.11.20	Bologna - Spezia	2:4 ET ✺
Italian Serie A
21.11.20	Spezia - Atalanta	0:0 ✺
07.11.20	Benevento - Spezia	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.5 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
26.01.20	Crotone - Spezia	1:2
31.08.19	Spezia - Crotone	1:2
04.05.19	Spezia - Crotone	2:0
27.12.18	Crotone - Spezia	0:3
15.04.16	Crotone - Spezia	0:0
27.11.15	Spezia - Crotone	0:1
02.04.15	Crotone - Spezia	2:0

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