Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 28 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Romero B. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Belarus	Okko Sport
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Colombia	ESPN 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV2
Spain	LaLiga+ app
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Cruzeiro		Unión Santa Fe

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	3.9	Watch
	1.98	3.2	3.9
	2.05	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2.06	3.28	3.89
	2.04	3.32	3.87
	2	3.1	3.8	Watch
	2.01	3.34	3.79	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.67)	3.27 ↓ (3.69)	3.79 ↓ (5.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruzeiro
46.5%

Draw
28.8%

Unión Santa Fe
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.1%

25.4%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59%

24.2%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cruzeiro's form might have worsened.

Unión Santa Fe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Unión Santa Fe's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+12.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cruzeiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Santa Fe than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Unión Santa Fe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	10%	10%

Cruzeiro - Unión Santa Fe Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Cruzeiro will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Unión will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cruzeiro: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruzeiro (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Unión (2.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruzeiro (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Unión (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Leo Aragao (G) 23. Fagner 34. Jonathan Jesus 5. Walace 36. Kaua Prates 35. Murilo Rhikman 14. Gamarra M. 10. Matheus Pereira (C) 21. Eduardo 70. Kenji 26. Diaz L.	1. Tagliamonte M. (G) 35. Vargas L. 34. Pardo F. (C) 13. Fascendini V. 3. Corvalan C. 10. Verde L. 8. Ham E. 28. Pitton M. 7. Fragapane F. 11. Del Blanco M. 18. Gamba L.
Substitutes
11. Bolasie Y. 42. de Souza Almeida N. P. 99. Dinenno J. 15. Fabricio Bruno 16. Lucas Silva 81. Otavio Costa (G) 75. Rodriguinho 29. Romero L. 25. Villalba L. 12. William Furtado	25. Cardozo T. (G) 41. Chavez A. (G) 21. Colazo A. 29. Diaz D. 9. Domina J. 22. Gerometta F. 33. Lavezzi T. 26. Luduena J. 16. Martinez M. 20. Palacios J. 32. Paz N. 36. Pumpido F.
Coaches
Jardim L.	Vazzoler N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Fascendini V. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Verde L. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,
46', Murilo Rhikman ↓, Bolasie Y. ↑,
59', Jonathan Jesus ↓, Villalba L. ↑,
60', Fagner ↓, William Furtado ↑,
60', Matheus Pereira ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
67', Diaz L. ↓, Dinenno J. ↑,
68', Vargas L. 🟨,
79', Fragapane F. ↓, Palacios J. ↑,
82', Gamba L. ↓, Colazo A. ↑,
85', Rodriguinho 🟨,
90', Ham E. ↓, Paz N. ↑,

Preview

Cruzeiro has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Unión is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Cruzeiro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Cruzeiro will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Cruzeiro will win today's game, with odds of 2.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Cruzeiro won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
25.05.25	Fortaleza - Cruzeiro	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.05.25	Vila Nova - Cruzeiro	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.05.25	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.05.25	Cruzeiro - Palestino	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.05.25	Sport Recife - Cruzeiro	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WWTWW
- Unión Santa Fe
Copa Sudamericana
13.05.25	Unión Santa Fe - Mushuc Runa	0:1 ✺
07.05.25	Unión Santa Fe - Palestino	1:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.05.25	Unión Santa Fe - Belgrano	1:1 ✺
28.04.25	Barracas Central - Unión Santa Fe	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Mushuc Runa - Unión Santa Fe	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
01.04.25	Unión Santa Fe - Cruzeiro	1:0

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