Match Info

Copa Betano do Brasil - 1/16-finals

Date: 22 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga (Goiânia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Vila Nova		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	3	3.1	2.5
	2.9	2.85	2.37
	3.2	3	2.36
	3.07	2.98	2.57
	3.38	2.9	2.36	Watch
	3.1	2.8	2.45
	3.16	2.92	2.49
	3.2	3	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↓ (3.51)	2.94 ↓ (3.43)	2.43 ↑ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vila Nova
29.9%

Draw
31.7%

Cruzeiro
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.6%

27.3%

46.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.9%

26.6%

47.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vila Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cruzeiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cruzeiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Vila Nova - Cruzeiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Vila Nova will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Cruzeiro (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Cruzeiro (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruzeiro (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Halls (G) 2. Elias 3. Tiago Pagnussat (C) 4. Bernardo Schappo 13. Willian Formiga 5. Joao Vieira 15. Miticov 11. Dodo 29. Junior Todinho 9. Gabriel Poveda 77. Guilherme Parede	1. Cassio (G) 12. William Furtado 15. Fabricio Bruno 25. Villalba L. 6. Kaiki 29. Romero L. (C) 88. Christian 10. Matheus Pereira 21. Eduardo 19. Kaio Jorge 9. Gabriel Barbosa
Substitutes
20. Bruno Mendes 10. Diego Torres 19. Gabriel Silva 22. Gustavo Paje 16. Higor 6. Igor Inocencio 8. Ralf 1. Victor Hugo (G) 7. Vinicius Paiva 14. Walisson Maia	11. Bolasie Y. 26. Diaz L. 99. Dinenno J. 34. Jonathan Jesus 36. Kaua Prates 70. Kenji 41. Leo Aragao (G) 16. Lucas Silva 17. Marquinhos 35. Murilo Rhikman 75. Rodriguinho 5. Walace
Coaches
Rafael Lacerda	Jardim L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Tiago Pagnussat 🟨,
27', William Furtado 🟨,
27', Guilherme Parede 🟨,
30', Matheus Pereira 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Tiago Pagnussat ↓, Walisson Maia ↑,
56', Eduardo 🟨,
56', 0 - 1, Eduardo ⚽, Gabriel Barbosa (A),
62', Dodo ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
62', Junior Todinho ↓, Gabriel Silva ↑,
64', Kaio Jorge ↓, Bolasie Y. ↑,
64', Christian ↓, Lucas Silva ↑,
65', Elias 🟨,
70', Guilherme Parede ↓, Diego Torres ↑,
71', Gabriel Poveda 🟨,
75', 0 - 2, Eduardo ⚽, Bolasie Y. (A),
80', Kaiki ↓, Kaua Prates ↑,
80', Romero L. ↓, Walace ↑,
81', William Furtado ↓, Jonathan Jesus ↑,
82', Gabriel Poveda ↓, Ralf ↑,
86', 0 - 3, Jonathan Jesus ⚽, Matheus Pereira (A),

Preview

1st leg result: 0-2. 2nd leg.

Vila Nova has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cruzeiro is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Cruzeiro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Cruzeiro will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vila Nova won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Vila Nova won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Cruzeiro - the odds 2.03 are the expected chance of winning is 46.11%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
17.05.25	Vila Nova - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
14.05.25	Remo - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
06.05.25	Athletic Club - Vila Nova	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.25	Cruzeiro - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
25.04.25	Vila Nova - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WLWLW
- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
18.05.25	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.05.25	Cruzeiro - Palestino	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.05.25	Sport Recife - Cruzeiro	0:4 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.25	Mushuc Runa - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.25	Cruzeiro - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.8 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
01.05.25	Cruzeiro - Vila Nova	2:0
Brazilian Serie B
14.10.22	Vila Nova - Cruzeiro	1:0
01.07.22	Cruzeiro - Vila Nova	2:0
01.11.21	Cruzeiro - Vila Nova	1:1
24.07.21	Vila Nova - Cruzeiro	0:0

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