Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 5

Date: 5 May 2024, Sunday

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá)

Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Portugal	Canal 11


	Cuiabá		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	5	3.25	1.83
	5	3.4	1.83
	4.75	3.3	1.83
	5.31	3.38	1.79
	5.42	3.26	1.83
	4.87	3.4	1.81	Watch
	5	3.3	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.05 ↑ (4.02)	3.33 ↓ (3.38)	1.81 ↓ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
18.8%

Draw
28.6%

Palmeiras
52.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.4%

27.8%

48.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.7%

27%

50.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	31.2%	56.2%

Cuiabá - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Cuiabá will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 31.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 32% – 80.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Walter (C) 4. Marllon 44. Gabriel 33. Alan Empereur 2. Matheus Alexandre 27. Denilson Alves 88. Fernando Sobral 18. Lucas Fernandes 23. Ramon 22. Derik Lacerda 9. Pitta I.	21. Weverton (G) 2. Marcos Rocha 15. Gustavo Gomez (C) 26. Murilo 22. Piquerez J. 5. Moreno A. 25. Gabriel Menino 31. Luis Guilherme 17. Lazaro 9. Endrick 10. Rony
Substitutes
3. Allyson 97. Andre Luis 34. Bruno Alves 25. Clayson 11. Eliel 19. Gimenez L. 7. Jonathan Cafu 63. Juan Tavares 30. Lucas Mineiro 14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 21. Railan 20. Rikelme	16. Caio Paulista 41. Estevao 35. Fabinho 42. Flaco Lopez 40. Jhon Jhon 13. Luan 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 12. Mayke 27. Rios R. 20. Romulo 6. Vanderlan 8. Ze Rafael
Coaches
Colbachini R.	Ferreira A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
43', Derik Lacerda 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 1, Lazaro ⚽, Luis Guilherme (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', Murilo 🟨,
58', Endrick ↓, Rios R. ↑,
58', Luis Guilherme ↓, Estevao ↑,
58', Lazaro ↓, Romulo ↑,
62', Alan Empereur ↓, Rikelme ↑,
70', Pitta I. ↓, Andre Luis ↑,
71', 0 - 2, Estevao (Pen),
71', Ramon ↓, Bruno Alves ↑,
75', Gabriel Menino 🟨,
82', Moreno A. ↓, Fabinho ↑,
82', Gabriel Menino ↓, Ze Rafael ↑,
83', Lucas Fernandes ↓, Clayson ↑,
84', Derik Lacerda ↓, Jonathan Cafu ↑,
90+4', Ze Rafael 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cuiabá won 0.

Cuiabá has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Palmeiras is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Palmeiras could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Cuiabá have a series of guest games.

In this match Palmeiras is a favorite.

There will not play in Cuiabá: Filipe Augusto (Injury) Max Alves (Injury)

There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues (Injury) Dudu (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Cuiabá won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 5-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Cuiabá won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Copa do Brasil
02.05.24	Goiás - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.04.24	Cuiabá - Atlético Mineiro	0:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.24	Grêmio - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
17.04.24	Vila Nova - Cuiabá	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTLL
- Palmeiras
Copa do Brasil
02.05.24	Palmeiras - Botafogo SP	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.04.24	São Paulo - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.04.24	Independiente del Valle - Palmeiras	2:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
21.04.24	Palmeiras - Flamengo	0:0 ✺
17.04.24	Palmeiras - Internacional RS	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
19.08.23	Cuiabá - Palmeiras	0:2
15.04.23	Palmeiras - Cuiabá	2:1
06.11.22	Cuiabá - Palmeiras	1:1
18.07.22	Palmeiras - Cuiabá	1:0
30.11.21	Cuiabá - Palmeiras	1:3
22.08.21	Palmeiras - Cuiabá	0:2

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