Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 24 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Banco Guayaquil (Quito)

Referee: Garay C. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Brazil	ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Portugal	Sport TV


	Independiente del Valle		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.5	3	2.87
	2.58	2.98	2.92	Watch
	2.7	2.98	3.02
	2.72	2.97	3
	2.45	3	2.8
	2.59	3.02	2.97	Watch
	2.39	3.05	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.37)	3 ↓ (3.33)	2.94 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente del Valle
36.7%

Draw
31.3%

Palmeiras
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

28.1%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

27.9%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	88.2%	11.8%

Independiente del Valle - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 88.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 72.9% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ramirez M. (G) 4. Landazuri A. 14. Carabajal M. 5. Schunke R. (C) 15. Caicedo B. 80. Ortiz J. 18. Zabala C. 30. Ibarra R. 16. Paez K. 31. Ibarra R. 11. Hoyos M.	21. Weverton (G) 2. Marcos Rocha 15. Gustavo Gomez (C) 13. Luan 12. Mayke 27. Rios R. 5. Moreno A. 22. Piquerez J. 23. Raphael Veiga 9. Endrick 10. Rony
Substitutes
50. Arroyo K. 58. Ayovi M. 17. Bolanos A. 13. Fernandez M. 53. Lerma Soliz J. A. 9. Lopez R. 51. Medina Y. 7. Mercado P. 6. Pombo J. 56. Ruiz E. 22. Villar G. (G) 2. Zarate L.	16. Caio Paulista 41. Estevao 35. Fabinho 42. Flaco Lopez 25. Gabriel Menino 32. Garcia 17. Lazaro 31. Luis Guilherme 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 26. Murilo 34. Naves 6. Vanderlan
Coaches
Gandolfi J.	Ferreira A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Paez K. ⚽, Zabala C. (A),
16', Hoyos M. 🟨,
38', 2 - 0, Hoyos M. ⚽, Paez K. (A),
45+2', 2 - 1, Endrick ⚽, Rony (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
55', Hoyos M. ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
55', Ibarra R. ↓, Medina Y. ↑,
65', Mayke ↓, Luis Guilherme ↑,
65', Raphael Veiga ↓, Estevao ↑,
74', Ortiz J. 🟨,
76', Caicedo B. 🟨,
77', Ibarra R. ↓, Arroyo K. ↑,
78', Rony ↓, Flaco Lopez ↑,
78', Luan ↓, Vanderlan ↑,
78', Endrick ↓, Lazaro ↑,
78', Zabala C. ↓, Mercado P. ↑,
80', Vanderlan 🟨,
81', 2 - 2, Lazaro ⚽, Flaco Lopez (A),
90+2', Rios R. 🟨,
90+6', 2 - 3, Luis Guilherme ⚽, Lazaro (A),

Preview

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

Palmeiras could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Palmeiras have a series of home games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Independiente del Valle won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Independiente del Valle won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.04.24	Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
14.04.24	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.04.24	Independiente del Valle - San Lorenzo	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
07.04.24	Independiente del Valle - Libertad Loja	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.04.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Independiente del Valle	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WTWWT
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
21.04.24	Palmeiras - Flamengo	0:0 ✺
17.04.24	Palmeiras - Internacional RS	0:1 ✺
14.04.24	Vitória Salvador - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
11.04.24	Palmeiras - Liverpool Montevideo	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
07.04.24	Palmeiras - Santos	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
11.05.21	Independiente del Valle - Palmeiras	0:1
27.04.21	Palmeiras - Independiente del Valle	5:0

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