Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 23 April 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Referee: Aragon A. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV


	Deportivo Garcilaso		Cuiabá

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	4.2	Watch
	2	3.3	3.7
	2	3.3	3.75	Watch
	2.02	3.35	4.01
	2.02	3.26	4.01
	1.95	3.25	3.6	Watch
	1.97	3.42	3.77	Watch
	1.96	3.2	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.41)	3.3 ↑ (3.13)	3.87 ↑ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Garcilaso
47.2%

Draw
28.5%

Cuiabá
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

29.5%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

29.4%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Garcilaso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Garcilaso's performance.

Cuiabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cuiabá might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Garcilaso than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Garcilaso that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cuiabá could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.8%	20.8%	8.3%

Deportivo Garcilaso - Cuiabá Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Deportivo Garcilaso will win (votes: 17 - 73.9%). Cuiabá will win (votes: 1 - 4.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 21.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Deportivo Garcilaso: 56% – 91.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Penny D. (G) 22. Canales E. 2. Salazar A. 16. Beltran C. 24. Gordillo A. 20. Ramirez D. 14. Diez C. 32. Erustes P. 10. Chicaiza L. 11. Gentile G. 9. Ugarriza A.	1. Walter (C) 2. Matheus Alexandre 4. Marllon 3. Allyson 44. Gabriel 20. Rikelme 97. Andre Luis 27. Denilson Alves 18. Lucas Fernandes 22. Derik Lacerda 19. Gimenez L.
Substitutes
27. Bazan J. 4. Caicedo L. 19. Cornejo M. 6. Cuero J. 36. Cuero M. 7. Gomez A. 31. Gonzales E. 13. Lojas J. 21. Perleche E. 5. Ramos C. 30. Simisterra R. 25. Vargas M. (G)	34. Bruno Alves 25. Clayson 11. Eliel 88. Fernando Sobral 8. Guilherme Madruga 49. Kauan Cristtyan 17. Luiz Felipe 14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 9. Pitta I. 35. Renan 12. Rhyan (G)
Coaches
Redin B.	Iubel L. F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ramirez D. ↓, Gonzales E. ↑,
53', Salazar A. 🟥,
56', Chicaiza L. ↓, Caicedo L. ↑,
60', Gimenez L. ↓, Pitta I. ↑,
61', Gabriel 🟨,
66', Gabriel ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
66', Andre Luis ↓, Clayson ↑,
69', Ugarriza A. ↓, Cuero M. ↑,
69', Erustes P. ↓, Bazan J. ↑,
71', Caicedo L. 🟨,
73', 0 - 1, Pitta I. ⚽, Denilson Alves (A),
76', 1 - 1, Beltran C. ⚽,
80', Derik Lacerda ↓, Eliel ↑,
81', Lucas Fernandes ↓, Guilherme Madruga ↑,
87', Guilherme Madruga 🟨,
89', Clayson 🟥,
90', Cornejo M. 🟨,
90+6', Gonzales E. ↓, Cornejo M. ↑,

Preview

Two teams are playing changeable.

Cuiabá could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Cuiabá have a series of guest games.

Deportivo Garcilaso will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1
19.04.24	Cienciano - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:2 ✺
15.04.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Sporting Cristal	2:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
11.04.24	Lanús - Deportivo Garcilaso	2:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
07.04.24	ADT Tarma - Deportivo Garcilaso	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.04.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Metropolitanos	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WLLTW
- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.24	Grêmio - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
17.04.24	Vila Nova - Cuiabá	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
14.04.24	Athletico Paranaense - Cuiabá	4:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
11.04.24	Metropolitanos - Cuiabá	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
06.04.24	União Rondonópolis - Cuiabá	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLWW

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