Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 9

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Bicentenario La Granja (Curicó)


	Curicó Unido		Deportes Puerto Montt

	1	X	2
	2.12	3.1	3.35
	2.12	3.14	3.65
	2.14	3.25	3.41	Watch
	2.1	2.9	3.3
	2.1	3.04	3.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.54)	3.09 ↑ (3.03)	3.42 ↑ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Curicó Unido
43.4%

Draw
29.8%

Deportes Puerto Montt
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

30.5%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

30.3%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Curicó Unido has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Curicó Unido's performance.

Deportes Puerto Montt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportes Puerto Montt might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Curicó Unido than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Curicó Unido that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Puerto Montt than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportes Puerto Montt could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Curicó Unido - Deportes Puerto Montt Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Curicó Unido (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Tello D. (G) 40. Oliver F. 15. Sanhueza H. 4. Colombo R. 19. de La Fuente R. (C) 39. Gomez J. P. 5. Guisolfo B. 17. Inostroza B. 7. Fernandez N. 9. Benegas L. 16. Riveros R.	29. Collao G. (G) 34. Gonzalez K. 2. Morales A. 4. Riveros M. 15. Egana K. 23. Castillo G. 14. Cardenas J. 16. Flores J. 30. Negrete S. 9. Vazquez L. (C) 11. Castro R.
Substitutes
27. Alfaro J. 13. Bustamante C. 25. Lopes Acevedo M. 23. Lopez L. 21. Ormeno E. 8. Romo J. 1. Vergara T. (G)	6. Diaz D. 17. Nieto B. 8. Paredes R. 28. Perez S. 3. Pino Villalon J. 13. Ureta L. (G) 10. Vargas C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45', Vazquez L. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 0, Benegas L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 2 - 0, Riveros R. ⚽,
60', Tello D. 🟨,
60', 2 - 1, Castro R. ⚽,
69', Fernandez N. ↓, Lopes Acevedo M. ↑,
73', Cardenas J. ↓, Diaz D. ↑,
73', Flores J. ↓, Vargas C. ↑,
73', Gonzalez K. ↓, Nieto B. ↑,
76', Riveros R. ↓, Romo J. ↑,
77', Negrete S. ↓, Perez S. ↑,
81', Castro R. ↓, Paredes R. ↑,
89', Inostroza B. ↓, Alfaro J. ↑,
89', Benegas L. ↓, Bustamante C. ↑,
90+3', Riveros M. 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 13 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Curicó Unido won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:2. (average 1.5:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Curicó Unido won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	D. Puerto Montt	26	10	4	12	26:34	-8	34
13	Curico Unido	26	6	9	11	22:39	-17	24

Last Results with these Odds

Curicó Unido - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 36.41%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Curicó Unido
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
18.04.26	Deportes Recoleta - Curicó Unido	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Unión San Felipe - Curicó Unido	0:0 ✺
28.03.26	Curicó Unido - Deportes Copiapó	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Deportes Santa Cruz - Curicó Unido	4:2 ✺
15.03.26	Curicó Unido - Rangers de Talca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TTTLW
- Deportes Puerto Montt
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
20.04.26	Deportes Puerto Montt - Deportes Temuco	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Deportes Iquique - Deportes Puerto Montt	0:0 ✺
28.03.26	Deportes Puerto Montt - Santiago Wanderers	0:2 ✺
20.03.26	Unión Española - Deportes Puerto Montt	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Deportes Puerto Montt - Deportes Santa Cruz	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
21.01.17	Curicó Unido - Deportes Puerto Montt	0:0
05.11.16	Deportes Puerto Montt - Curicó Unido	0:2
23.04.16	Deportes Puerto Montt - Curicó Unido	2:1
22.11.15	Curicó Unido - Deportes Puerto Montt	3:0

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