Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio - Round 2

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo María Mincheff de Lazaroff (Montevideo)


	Danubio		Juventud de Las Piedras

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.1	2.5	Watch
	2.55	3.10	2.60
	2.72	3	2.52
	2.97	3.23	2.57
	2.6	3.16	2.75
	2.9	3.15	2.5
	2.69	3.13	2.64	Watch
	2.75	3.05	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↑ (2.51)	3.12 ↓ (3.18)	2.58 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Danubio
33.9%

Draw
29.9%

Juventud de Las Piedras
36.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

29.1%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

30.6%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Juventud de Las Piedras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juventud de Las Piedras than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	71.4%	28.6%

Danubio - Juventud de Las Piedras Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Juventud will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Goicoechea M. (C) 18. Balatti F. 4. Rinaldi M. 2. Velazquez E. 31. Cavanagh T. 16. Rossi I. 10. Peralta M. 8. Rodriguez S. 7. Cabrera E. 30. Fernandez S. 9. Azambuja B.	1. Sosa S. (C) 24. Barrandeguy F. 2. Pernicone P. 23. Mas E. 16. Rabino R. 14. Roldan L. 19. Cecchini E. 37. Peralta R. 7. Alaniz A. 10. Larregui B. 11. Lago P.
Substitutes
21. Azambuja N. 28. Femia E. 15. Figueroa E. 32. Martinez K. (G) 5. Millan J. 22. Montana A. 14. Pereira B. 3. Pereyra J. 26. Piriz D. 6. Sosa L.	4. Caceres M. 22. Chagas R. 50. Idiarte M. (G) 80. Mimbacas F. 26. Pereiro G. 21. Perez F. 9. Perez M. 28. Risso F. 31. Rodriguez I. 20. Sanchez R.
Coaches
Ramos L.	Blanco Soto S. R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', Fernandez S. ↓, Femia E. ↑,
36', Lago P. 🟨,
44', Rossi I. 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 1, Peralta R. ⚽,
45+3', 1 - 1, Rodriguez S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lago P. ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,
67', Larregui B. ↓, Mimbacas F. ↑,
69', Cavanagh T. ↓, Figueroa E. ↑,
70', Cabrera E. ↓, Piriz D. ↑,
76', Alaniz A. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
77', Rodriguez S. ↓, Millan J. ↑,
87', Cecchini E. 🟨,
87', Peralta R. ↓, Chagas R. ↑,
88', Azambuja B. 🟨,
90', Rabino R. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Danubio won 2.

Danubio has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Juventud is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Juventud may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Danubio won 11 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 33:21. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Danubio won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:10. (average 1.8:0.9).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Juventud	9	3	5	1	10:6	4	14
13	Danubio	9	1	4	4	4:10	-6	7

Last Results with these Odds

Danubio - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 36.83%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Juventud de Las Piedras - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 34.05%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.06.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Danubio	0:0 ✺
30.05.26	Danubio - Progreso	1:2 ✺
18.05.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Danubio	3:1 ✺
09.05.26	Danubio - Albion Montevideo	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Danubio	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 TLLLL
- Juventud de Las Piedras
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.06.26	Nacional Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1 ✺
31.05.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Montevideo Wanderers	2:5 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
27.05.26	Cienciano - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:1 ✺
21.05.26	Academia Puerto Cabello - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
16.05.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
16.03.26	Danubio - Juventud de Las Piedras	4:1
10.08.25	Danubio - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1
21.06.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Danubio	3:1
09.02.25	Juventud de Las Piedras - Danubio	2:2
Uruguayan Segunda Division
12.10.21	Danubio - Juventud de Las Piedras	0:1
01.07.21	Juventud de Las Piedras - Danubio	0:1
Uruguayan Primera Division
09.11.19	Juventud de Las Piedras - Danubio	0:0

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