Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo María Mincheff de Lazaroff (Montevideo)

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, Disney+


	Danubio		Albion Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	2.9	Watch
	2.38	2.98	2.98
	2.5	2.98	3.28
	2.5	2.84	3.21	Watch
	2.45	2.8	3.1
	2.44	2.94	3.13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.41)	2.92 ↓ (2.96)	3.1 ↓ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Danubio
38.3%

Draw
31.8%

Albion Montevideo
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

31.6%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

32.7%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Albion Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Albion Montevideo than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Danubio - Albion Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Danubio will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Albion will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Goicoechea M. (G) 23. Garcia D. 2. Velazquez E. (C) 6. Sosa L. 18. Mayada C. 8. Rodriguez S. 16. Rossi I. 17. Velazquez A. 10. Peralta M. 20. Ferreira M. 21. Azambuja N.	1. Jaume S. (G) 6. Moschion T. 2. Couture F. 24. Burdin E. 16. Alvarez J. 5. Ginella F. (C) 27. Costa S. 10. Airala C. 11. Toledo H. 22. Vera A. 9. Lopez A.
Substitutes
40. Balatti F. 7. Cabrera E. 25. Cabrera F. 28. Femia E. 15. Figueroa E. 32. Martinez K. (G) 22. Montana A. 14. Pereira B. 3. Pereyra J. 26. Piriz D.	18. Acosta B. 15. Alcoba P. 17. de los Santos M. 32. Figueroa T. 13. Lacoste P. 80. Leonardo Pais 31. Lerda D. (G) 34. Pereira A. 29. Puente F. 79. Roldan N.
Coaches
Matosas G.	Nieves F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', Rodriguez S. 🟨,
32', Costa S. 🟨,
42', Velazquez E. ↓, Pereyra J. ↑,
45+2', 0 - 1, Lopez A. ⚽, Costa S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Rossi I. ↓, Femia E. ↑,
52', Garcia D. ↓, Cabrera E. ↑,
61', Costa S. ↓, Alcoba P. ↑,
63', Ferreira M. ↓, Piriz D. ↑,
63', Azambuja N. ↓, Pereira B. ↑,
68', Piriz D. 🟨,
71', Pereira B. 🟨,
78', Sosa L. 🟨,
83', Lopez A. ↓, Figueroa T. ↑,
83', Velazquez A. 🟨,
87', Vera A. 🟨,
90', Alvarez J. ↓, Puente F. ↑,
90', Airala C. ↓, de los Santos M. ↑,
90', Toledo H. ↓, Roldan N. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 3).

In recent matches, Danubio has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Albion is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Danubio won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Danubio won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Danubio	9	1	4	4	4:10	-6	7
16	Albion	9	1	0	8	9:18	-9	3

Last Results with these Odds

Danubio - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 38.77%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
02.05.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Danubio	3:0 ✺
25.04.26	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Central Español - Danubio	2:2 ✺
04.04.26	Danubio - Montevideo City Torque	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LWTTT
- Albion Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.26	Albion Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	3:2 ✺
25.04.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Albion Montevideo	1:2 ✺
17.04.26	Albion Montevideo - Central Español	6:1 ✺
11.04.26	Montevideo City Torque - Albion Montevideo	0:1 ✺
05.04.26	Albion Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
16.10.22	Danubio - Albion Montevideo	3:0
27.05.22	Albion Montevideo - Danubio	1:2
Uruguayan Segunda Division
01.11.21	Albion Montevideo - Danubio	2:1
22.07.21	Danubio - Albion Montevideo	0:2

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