Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 20

Date: 12 December 2025, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: De Vijverberg (Doetinchem) 🌤️ ...

Referee: van den Kerkhof M. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Netherlands	20:00	Canal+, ESPN 2


	De Graafschap		Roda

	1	X	2
	1.68	4.2	4	Watch
	1.72	4.45	3.7
	1.76	4.5	3.94
	1.74	4.61	3.7	Watch
	1.75	4	3.7
	1.8	4.1	3.65	Watch
	1.75	4.25	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.03)	4.3 ↑ (3.75)	3.76 ↑ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

De Graafschap
53.5%

Draw
21.7%

Roda
24.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.2%

24.4%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.8%

23.6%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

De Graafschap has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in De Graafschap's performance.

Roda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Roda might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for De Graafschap than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with De Graafschap that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roda than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

De Graafschap - Roda Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Roda (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Graafschap (1.88) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: De Graafschap will win (16 of 18 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.37% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): De Graafschap will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Graafschap (votes: 11 - 91.7%). Roda (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wieggers T. (G) 4. Raterink O. 24. Meerstadt J. 18. Bultman S. 21. Symons K. 22. de Jong F. 10. Niemeijer R. (C) 8. Gijselhart T. 26. van der Heide A. 28. Boersma B. 11. El Kadiri I.	1. Treichel J. (G) 22. Kruiver J. 3. Tol M. 15. Beerten L. 5. Jansen K. 4. Nisbet J. 8. Muller J. P. 11. Griffith I. 14. Breij M. 7. Seedorf C. 9. van den Hurk A. (C)
Substitutes
20. Braem T. 32. Broker S. 38. Eijken D. 25. Jonkers R. (G) 17. Kaninda N. 15. Kok T. 12. Kremers S. (G) 5. Schoppema L. 7. Simons J. 6. Smits M. 9. Theodoridis D.	16. Cooper-Love J. 26. El Meliani R. 28. Foss J. 35. Janssen F. 17. Lajud Martinez D. 20. Leijten R. 34. Maiorano L. 23. Steins J. (G) 29. Takidine I. 2. Timmermans J. 21. Zich B. (G)
Coaches
Dijkhuizen M.	van Dessel K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Boersma B. ⚽, van der Heide A. (A),
29', 2 - 0, Niemeijer R. ⚽, El Kadiri I. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
51', 2 - 1, van den Hurk A. ⚽, Breij M. (A),
56', Jansen K. 🟨,
58', 2 - 2, Griffith I. ⚽, van den Hurk A. (A),
66', de Jong F. ↓, Smits M. ↑,
70', El Kadiri I. ↓, Simons J. ↑,
70', Symons K. ↓, Schoppema L. ↑,
77', Seedorf C. ↓, Maiorano L. ↑,
84', van der Heide A. ↓, Theodoridis D. ↑,
89', van den Hurk A. ↓, Cooper-Love J. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 3, Cooper-Love J. ⚽, Griffith I. (A),

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, De Graafschap won 2.

De Graafschap is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Roda is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Roda may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

De Graafschap is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in De Graafschap: Besselink R. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Roda: Kother T. (Knee Injury) Paulissen M. (Knee Injury) Schwirten J. (Knee Injury) Van den Buijs D. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Roda: Deom J. (Injury)

We predict that De Graafschap will win today's game, with odds of 1.81.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, De Graafschap won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 30:27. (average 1.5:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, De Graafschap won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:9. (average 1.7:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- De Graafschap
Dutch Eerste Divisie
08.12.25	Jong Utrecht - De Graafschap	2:3 ✺
04.12.25	Vitesse - De Graafschap	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	De Graafschap - FC Eindhoven	2:0 ✺
25.11.25	ADO Den Haag - De Graafschap	3:2 ✺
21.11.25	De Graafschap - Helmond Sport	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWWLW
- Roda JC
Dutch Eerste Divisie
05.12.25	Roda - Jong AZ Alkmaar	2:3 ✺
30.11.25	MVV Maastricht - Roda	0:0 ✺
25.11.25	Roda - Dordrecht	1:2 ✺
22.11.25	Emmen - Roda	1:1 ✺
07.11.25	ADO Den Haag - Roda	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
15.08.25	Roda - De Graafschap	1:0
06.04.25	De Graafschap - Roda	2:0
01.09.24	Roda - De Graafschap	1:4
19.04.24	Roda - De Graafschap	1:1
29.09.23	De Graafschap - Roda	0:0
19.02.23	De Graafschap - Roda	2:0
12.09.22	Roda - De Graafschap	3:2

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