Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 4

Date: 4 December 2025, Thursday

Location: GelreDome (Arnhem)

Referee: Kooij J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+


	Vitesse		De Graafschap

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.9	1.91	Watch
	3.05	4.15	1.98
	3.17	4.37	2.02
	3.17	4.31	1.93	Watch
	3.1	4	1.95
	3.25	3.96	1.95	Watch
	3	4.2	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.15 ↑ (2.97)	4.13 ↑ (3.98)	1.96 ↓ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitesse
29.7%

Draw
22.6%

De Graafschap
47.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

23.5%

45.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

23.1%

45.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitesse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

De Graafschap has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitesse than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for De Graafschap than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	0%	90.5%

Vitesse - De Graafschap Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Vitesse (2.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - De Graafschap (3.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: De Graafschap will win (18 of 20 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.85% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): De Graafschap will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Vitesse (votes: 2 - 20%). De Graafschap (votes: 8 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Brull M. (C) 24. Markelo N. 55. Steffen M. 17. Zumberi V. 28. Buttner A. 6. Schikora M. 33. Marschalk M. 27. Zonneveld N. 19. Tahaui A. 7. Hoogewerf D. 9. Huth E.	1. Wieggers T. (G) 4. Raterink O. 18. Bultman S. 3. Besselink R. 21. Symons K. 24. Meerstadt J. 10. Niemeijer R. (C) 8. Gijselhart T. 26. van der Heide A. 28. Boersma B. 11. El Kadiri I.
Substitutes
35. Achouitar O. 5. Bakker J. 20. Bannis N. 2. Bonnah S. 30. Driezen M. 8. Moustafa A. 34. Ouallil Y. 13. Pinto J. 11. Ranon Y. 23. Siecker J. (G) 22. Thenu X. 16. van den Berg C. (G)	20. Braem T. 32. Broker S. 22. de Jong F. 38. Eijken D. 25. Jonkers R. (G) 15. Kok T. 12. Kremers S. (G) 5. Schoppema L. 7. Simons J. 6. Smits M. 9. Theodoridis D.
Coaches
Rehm R.	Dijkhuizen M.

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 20 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vitesse won 3.

Vitesse has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

De Graafschap is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Vitesse may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Vitesse won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:8. (average 2.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Vitesse won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:1. (average 3:0.2).

Last Results with these Odds

De Graafschap - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 45.1%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitesse Arnhem
Dutch Eerste Divisie
01.12.25	Jong Ajax - Vitesse	2:0 ✺
25.11.25	Vitesse - Jong PSV	3:1 ✺
21.11.25	Dordrecht - Vitesse	1:1 ✺
07.11.25	Vitesse - Cambuur	0:4 ✺
31.10.25	VVV-Venlo - Vitesse	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 LWTLW
- De Graafschap
Dutch Eerste Divisie
30.11.25	De Graafschap - FC Eindhoven	2:0 ✺
25.11.25	ADO Den Haag - De Graafschap	3:2 ✺
21.11.25	De Graafschap - Helmond Sport	3:1 ✺
09.11.25	Waalwijk - De Graafschap	1:4 ✺
31.10.25	Den Bosch - De Graafschap	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
16.02.25	Vitesse - De Graafschap	2:0
29.09.24	De Graafschap - Vitesse	3:1
Dutch KNVB Beker
29.10.19	Vitesse - De Graafschap	2:0
Dutch Eredivisie
12.05.19	Vitesse - De Graafschap	6:1
23.12.18	De Graafschap - Vitesse	2:2
21.02.16	De Graafschap - Vitesse	2:2
20.09.15	Vitesse - De Graafschap	3:0

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