Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 28 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello (Gobernador Julio A. Costa)

Referee: Calderas E. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Belarus	Okko Sport
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Paraguay	Tigo Sports+
Peru	DirecTV Sports
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter


	Defensa y Justicia		Cerro Largo

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.5	7.5	Watch
	1.4	4.33	8
	1.4	4.5	7.5	Watch
	1.41	4.6	7.66
	1.42	4.57	7.78	Watch
	1.36	4.2	8.5	Watch
	1.43	4.53	7.55	Watch
	1.4	4.5	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↑ (1.38)	4.47 ↑ (4.45)	7.75 ↓ (8.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensa y Justicia
66.8%

Draw
21%

Cerro Largo
12.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68%

21%

11%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.8%

20.2%

10.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensa y Justicia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Cerro Largo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensa y Justicia than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Defensa y Justicia - Cerro Largo Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Defensa y Justicia will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Bologna E. (G) 38. Rubio T. 6. Ferreira L. 34. Delgado R. 3. Soto A. 16. Larralde V. 5. Gutierrez K. 20. Gonzalez L. 31. La Roza U. 7. Osorio A. 11. Togni G.	24. Santilli G. (G) 17. Garcia A. 5. Di Pippa A. 32. Gianoli M. 6. Bonifazi F. 22. Bertocchi N. 15. Assis S. 8. Mir M. 10. Otormin L. 30. Hernandez B. 29. Affonso M.
Substitutes
28. Aguilera E. 19. Barbona D. 26. Gonzalez F. 24. Gonzalez M. 1. Masuero F. (G) 21. Miranda M. 9. Miritello J. B. 10. Molinas A. 8. Perez C. 15. Perez D. 37. Ramirez M. 22. Sosa S.	11. Anasco M. 7. Contrera J. 18. Gonzalez C. 23. Gonzalez T. 2. Parada F. 13. Peraza F. 25. Perez A. 26. Perez Tica J. 1. Pintado F. (G) 3. Piriz M. 9. Rossi F.
Coaches
Kohan T.	Nunez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', Gianoli M. 🟨,
33', Gutierrez K. 🟨,
42', Osorio A. 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 1, Assis S. ⚽, Affonso M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 0 - 2, Otormin L. ⚽, Affonso M. (A),
53', Hernandez B. ↓, Anasco M. ↑,
55', Delgado R. ↓, Barbona D. ↑,
55', La Roza U. ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
56', Larralde V. ↓, Miritello J. B. ↑,
59', Soto A. 🟨,
66', Gonzalez L. ↓, Molinas A. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Barbona D. ⚽, Gonzalez F. (A),
68', Otormin L. ↓, Perez A. ↑,
81', Affonso M. ↓, Peraza F. ↑,
81', Garcia A. ↓, Piriz M. ↑,
81', Bertocchi N. ↓, Parada F. ↑,
83', Rubio T. ↓, Miranda M. ↑,
90+4', Anasco M. 🟨,

Preview

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Defensa y Justicia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Defensa y Justicia is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Defensa y Justicia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensa y Justicia
Copa Argentina
22.05.25	Defensa y Justicia - Newells Old Boys	0:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.05.25	Defensa y Justicia - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:1 ✺
06.05.25	Vitória Salvador - Defensa y Justicia	1:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
02.05.25	Independiente Rivadavia - Defensa y Justicia	3:2 ✺
28.04.25	Defensa y Justicia - Racing	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LTTLL
- Cerro Largo
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.05.25	Defensor Sporting - Cerro Largo	3:2 ✺
18.05.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Cerro Largo	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.05.25	Cerro Largo - Vitória Salvador	0:1 ✺
07.05.25	Cerro Largo - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:3 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.25	Cerro Largo - Plaza Colonia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
03.04.25	Cerro Largo - Defensa y Justicia	0:0

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