Match Info

Serie Rio de la Plata

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Luis Franzini (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Defensor Sporting		Unión Santa Fe

	1	X	2
	2.48	3.2	2.68
	2.63	3.22	2.49
	2.5	2.9	2.63
	2.43	3.1	2.64	Watch
	2.54	3.25	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↓ (3.16)	3.13 ↓ (3.29)	2.63 ↑ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensor Sporting
36.2%

Draw
29.1%

Unión Santa Fe
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

27.9%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensor Sporting has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Defensor Sporting's performance.

Unión Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Unión Santa Fe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Defensor Sporting - Unión Santa Fe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Dawson K. (G) 11. Agazzi L. 61. Saravia M. 20. Caballero M. 33. Robatto J. 24. De los Santos G. 6. Amaro M. 30. Medina N. 21. Valiente J. 19. Castro F. 26. Montenegro B.	28. Gomes Gerth F. (G) 4. Alvarez E. 2. Paz N. 26. Luduena J. 12. Pitton B. (C) 31. Aguirre M. 43. Giaccone E. 8. Palavecino N. 10. Gonzalez T. 29. Diaz D. 19. Estigarribia M.
Substitutes
25. Abella D. 5. Barrios G. 90. Cantera T. 27. Juan Jorge 9. Machado A. 1. Machado L. (G) 28. Navarro L. 4. Rodriguez G. 2. Sorondo F. 22. Torterolo A. 8. Wunsch N.	. Ayala L. . Cacciabue L. 46. Grella S. . Isla I. 40. Meuli L. (G) . Peresutti M. . Solbes R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', De los Santos G. 🟨,
38', Aguirre M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Montenegro B. ↓, Navarro L. ↑,
46', Valiente J. ↓, Torterolo A. ↑,
46', Medina N. ↓, Machado A. ↑,
46', Castro F. ↓, Wunsch N. ↑,
46', Agazzi L. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
46', De los Santos G. ↓, Barrios G. ↑,
61', Gonzalez T. ↓, Grella S. ↑,
61', Robatto J. ↓, Abella D. ↑,
61', Amaro M. ↓, Juan Jorge ↑,
61', Saravia M. ↓, Cantera T. ↑,
62', 0 - 1, Giaccone E. ⚽,
71', 1 - 1, Navarro L. ⚽,
73', Caballero M. ↓, Sorondo F. ↑,
78', Estigarribia M. ↓, Solbes R. ↑,
78', Palavecino N. ↓, Cacciabue L. ↑,
78', Pitton B. ↓, Ayala L. ↑,
83', Giaccone E. ↓, Isla I. ↑,
83', Luduena J. ↓, Peresutti M. ↑,

Preview

Unión may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Unión is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Defensor Sporting won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Defensor Sporting won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
11.01.26	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	0:1 penalties ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
09.11.25	Defensor Sporting - Nacional Montevideo	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	2:1 ✺
24.10.25	Defensor Sporting - Montevideo City Torque	0:1 ✺
19.10.25	Progreso - Defensor Sporting	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LTLLW
- Unión Santa Fe
Serie Rio de la Plata
14.01.26	Unión Santa Fe - Alianza Lima	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.11.25	Unión Santa Fe - Gimnasia La Plata	1:2 ✺
17.11.25	Belgrano - Unión Santa Fe	0:0 ✺
08.11.25	Unión Santa Fe - Barracas Central	0:0 ✺
31.10.25	Newells Old Boys - Unión Santa Fe	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Serie Rio de la Plata
16.01.24	Defensor Sporting - Unión Santa Fe	1:2 penalties
Club Friendly
22.01.12	Defensor Sporting - Unión Santa Fe	N/A

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