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Current Win Probability
Defensores Unidos 31.5%
Draw 32.5%
San Martín de Burzaco 36%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
40.5%
31.2%
28.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
43%
29.4%
26.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Defensores Unidos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Defensores Unidos's form might have worsened.
San Martín de Burzaco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting San Martín de Burzaco's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensores Unidos than the current prediction. (+11.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Defensores Unidos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Martín de Burzaco than the current prediction. (-9.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for San Martín de Burzaco, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Defensores Unidos - San Martín de Burzaco Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Henricot F. (G) 5. Baigorria A. 10. Gimenez M. 7. Girard T. 9. Herrera S. 2. Lopez J. 8. Montani L. 3. Olivera L. 4. Ortigoza M. 11. Sombra A. 6. Suarez F.
1. Gagliardo M. (G) 3. Barrera N. 9. Chavez B. 11. Cuenca C. 5. Denis K. 4. Escudero M. 8. Gauna N. A. 7. Gonzalez R. 6. Lazarev R. 2. Orellana D. 10. Velazquez R.
Substitutes
13. Alarcon M. N. 18. Carboni B. 19. D'Andrea F. 17. Ferreyra T. 20. Lopez M. 14. Rapetti M. 15. Redondo K. 12. Salerno F. (G) 16. Salvo D.
19. Costa L. 18. Diaz R. 15. Geneiro L. 17. Lezcano L. 12. Marchesi N. (G) 14. Modon S. 16. Peralta R. 13. Tobon J. 20. Zagert E.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
27', Barrera N. ↓, Tobon J. ↑,
32', 1 - 0, Gimenez M. ⚽,
33', Chavez B. 🟨,
40', Gonzalez R. 🟨,
45+1', Gimenez M. 🟨,
45+1', Orellana D. 🟨,
45+1', 2 - 0, Gimenez M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Cuenca C. ↓, Modon S. ↑,
46', Velazquez R. ↓, Geneiro L. ↑,
46', Orellana D. ↓, Zagert E. ↑,
48', Montani L. 🟨,
53', Escudero M. 🟨,
59', Montani L. ↓, Carboni B. ↑,
59', 🟨,
67', Herrera S. ↓, D'Andrea F. ↑,
70', Escudero M. ↓, Diaz R. ↑,
71', Geneiro L. 🟨,
77', Chavez B. 🟥,
88', Ortigoza M. ↓, Alarcon M. N. ↑,
Preview
A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation ~ Primera C (Apertura: ) and 13).
Neither of the teams is performing well right now.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Defensores Unidos won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 2:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Defensores Unidos won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
11
San Martin Burzaco
38
12
14
12
39:41
-2
50
18
Defensores Unidos
38
9
14
15
33:39
-6
41
Last Results with these Odds
San Martín de Burzaco - the odds 3.15 are the expected chance of winning is 28.27%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.