Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - ROUND 38

Date: 16 October 2023, Monday


	Defensores de Belgrano		San Martín de Tucumán

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.2	3	Watch
	2.4	2.95	2.9
	2.4	2.95	3.1	Watch
	2.57	2.89	3.25
	2.38	2.88	3.1
	2.45	3.02	3.1
	2.42	3	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.52)	2.98 ↓ (3.22)	3.06 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensores de Belgrano
38.1%

Draw
31.3%

San Martín de Tucumán
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

28.1%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

28.7%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensores de Belgrano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

San Martín de Tucumán has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and San Martín de Tucumán might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensores de Belgrano than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Martín de Tucumán than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	45%	35%

Defensores de Belgrano - San Martín de Tucumán Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Defensores will win (votes: 4 - 20%). San Martin T will win (votes: 7 - 35%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 45%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.2% – 66.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pietrobono I. (G) 4. Bonacorso E. 2. Torres D. 6. Moreira R. 3. Sanchez S. 8. Gutierrez I. 5. De Tomasso J. 10. Salto C. 11. Moyano P. 7. Aguirre E. 9. Benegas N. (C)	1. Sand D. (G) 4. Sansotre N. 2. Orellana J. 6. Meritello F. 3. Banegas N. 5. Abregu G. 7. Martinez E. 8. Pierce M. 10. Bucca L. 9. Bonacci P. 11. Dening E. (C)
Substitutes
16. Baiardino J. 18. Benitez M. 19. Ceratto M. 17. Chavez F. 15. Formica M. 14. Levi M. 13. Medaglia E. 20. Molina M. 12. Petruchi L. (G)	15. Andrada B. 13. Brunet N. 12. Carrizo N. (G) 17. Ciccolini L. 20. Colazo A. 16. Kabalin M. 18. Nunez G. 14. Quilez I. 19. Veron M.
Coaches
Mayor C.	Frontini P.

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

San Martín de Tucumán is Qualified for Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs )

Defensores de Belgrano is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

San Martín de Tucumán is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Defensores de Belgrano could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Defensores de Belgrano won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Defensores de Belgrano won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensores de Belgrano
Argentinian Primera Nacional
06.10.23	Nueva Chicago - Defensores de Belgrano	2:1 ✺
30.09.23	Defensores de Belgrano - All Boys	1:0 ✺
24.09.23	Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - Defensores de Belgrano	1:0 ✺
11.09.23	Defensores de Belgrano - Almirante Brown	0:1 ✺
04.09.23	Deportivo Morón - Defensores de Belgrano	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LWLLL
- San Martín de Tucumán
Argentinian Primera Nacional
08.10.23	San Martín de Tucumán - Almirante Brown	0:0 ✺
02.10.23	Deportivo Morón - San Martín de Tucumán	0:0 ✺
23.09.23	San Martín de Tucumán - Güemes	1:1 ✺
17.09.23	Patronato Parana - San Martín de Tucumán	1:3 ✺
09.09.23	San Martín de Tucumán - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
04.06.23	San Martín de Tucumán - Defensores de Belgrano	3:1
22.10.22	San Martín de Tucumán - Defensores de Belgrano	0:3
06.06.22	Defensores de Belgrano - San Martín de Tucumán	0:0
06.12.20	Defensores de Belgrano - San Martín de Tucumán	0:1
06.10.19	San Martín de Tucumán - Defensores de Belgrano	0:0

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