Match Info

Primera Nacional - Promotion - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano (Moron)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports, TyC Sports Play


	Deportivo Morón		San Martín de Tucumán

	1	X	2
	1.96	2.7	5	Watch
	1.98	2.78	4.55	Watch
	2.04	2.71	5.34
	2.30	2.35	4.78	Watch
	2.01	2.76	4.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.91)	2.66 ↓ (2.85)	4.84 ↓ (4.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Morón
45.5%

Draw
35.2%

San Martín de Tucumán
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

32.5%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

32.4%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Morón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

San Martín de Tucumán has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Morón than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Martín de Tucumán than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Deportivo Morón - San Martín de Tucumán Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - San Martin T (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. San Martin T (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Salva J. (G) 4. Cabrera J. M. 2. Lorenzon F. 6. Vazquez F. 3. Livera J. 8. Franco E. 5. Ballini M. 11. Bittolo M. 10. Gonzalez Y. 7. Sanguinetti F. 9. Costantino I.	1. Sand D. (G) 4. Murillo F. 6. Rodriguez G. 2. Penalba T. 3. Zuliani H. 8. Vera U. 5. Garcia M. 10. Cuevas J. 11. Hachen G. 7. Garcia F. 9. Pino M.
Substitutes
18. Beron J. 15. Contreras E. 13. Cortave M. 20. Fergonzi R. 12. Finochietto L. (G) 16. Gonzalez G. 17. Kubiszyn S. 14. Lazza E. 19. Olivares J.	14. Abregu G. 16. Cainelli N. 12. Carrizo N. (G) 17. Castro N. 18. Esquivel J. 13. Osores M. 20. Rodriguez G. 15. Soraire J. 19. Spetale A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Penalba T. 🟨,
32', Murillo F. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Garcia F. 🟨,
55', 🟨,
58', Garcia M. 🟨,
59', 🟨,
60', Salva J. 🟨,
63', Cuevas J. ↓, Esquivel J. ↑,
63', Zuliani H. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
64', Ballini M. ↓, Gonzalez G. ↑,
72', Garcia F. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
72', Hachen G. ↓, Spetale A. ↑,
78', Sanguinetti F. ↓, Beron J. ↑,
88', Bittolo M. ↓, Kubiszyn S. ↑,
88', Franco E. ↓, Cortave M. ↑,
89', Gonzalez Y. ↓, Olivares J. ↑,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Deportivo Morón may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Deportivo Morón is considered a favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Morón won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Morón won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Morón
Argentinian Primera Nacional
05.10.25	Chaco For Ever - Deportivo Morón	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Deportivo Morón - Mitre	3:0 ✺
21.09.25	Colón - Deportivo Morón	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Deportivo Morón - Temperley	0:1 ✺
05.09.25	Defensores Unidos - Deportivo Morón	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TWTLW
- San Martín de Tucumán
Argentinian Primera Nacional
04.10.25	San Miguel - San Martín de Tucumán	2:2 ✺
28.09.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Quilmes	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Racing de Córdoba - San Martín de Tucumán	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Atlanta Buenos Aires	4:0 ✺
05.09.25	Colegiales - San Martín de Tucumán	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
02.10.23	Deportivo Morón - San Martín de Tucumán	0:0
21.05.23	San Martín de Tucumán - Deportivo Morón	2:0
Copa Argentina
19.04.23	San Martín de Tucumán - Deportivo Morón	2:0
Argentinian Primera Nacional
19.02.22	San Martín de Tucumán - Deportivo Morón	0:0
28.10.17	Deportivo Morón - San Martín de Tucumán	1:1

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