Match Info

Liga de Primera - Relegation - Play Offs - Final

Date: 3 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Ester Roa (Concepción)


	Deportes Concepción		Cobreloa

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.2	3.45
	2.09	3.2	3.63
	2.02	3.33	3.64	Watch
	2	3	3.5
	2.06	3.22	3.61
	2	3.2	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.12)	3.19 ↑ (3.03)	3.57 ↑ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Concepción
45.3%

Draw
28.9%

Cobreloa
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

30.3%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

29.2%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Concepción has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Cobreloa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Concepción than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cobreloa than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	44.4%	0%

Deportes Concepción - Cobreloa Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Deportes Concepción will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Deportes Concepción: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Concepción (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Araya N. (G) 4. Caceres A. 3. Carrasco D. 24. Espinola J. 31. Kimura N. 26. Morales C. 16. Sandoval M. 11. Valdivia B. 27. Sepulveda N. 7. Gillard A. 32. Larrivey J. (C)	1. Araya Tobar H. E. (G) 23. Navarrete G. 17. Tapia D. 33. Heredia A. 6. Palma N. 40. Guzman R. 21. Muga C. 32. Zuniga S. 15. Valdes A. 7. Gotti G. (C) 42. Jara A.
Substitutes
6. Astete N. 9. Escobar C. 1. Munoz J. (G) 10. Nunez F. 23. Ojeda U. 19. Ovalle J. 2. Ramirez M.	25. Acevedo D. 24. Garcia L. 44. Huanca C. 30. Ledezma I. 18. Melendez J. 16. Romero P. 31. Salazar A. (G)
Coaches
Almendra P.	Bravo C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Sandoval M. 🟨,
10', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 1 - 0, Caceres A. ⚽,
60', Zuniga S. ↓, Ledezma I. ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Ledezma I. ⚽,
70', Valdivia B. ↓, Ojeda U. ↑,
79', Carrasco D. 🟨,
81', Caceres A. ↓, Escobar C. ↑,
81', Sandoval M. ↓, Ovalle J. ↑,
84', Navarrete G. ↓, Garcia L. ↑,
85', Guzman R. ↓, Romero P. ↑,
90+1', Larrivey J. 🟨,
90+2', Valdes A. ↓, Melendez J. ↑,
90+3', 🟨,
90+5', Garcia L. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Deportes Concepción may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Deportes Concepción could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Deportes Concepción won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportes Concepción won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0. (average 2.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Concepción
Chilean Primera Division
30.11.25	Deportes Copiapó - Deportes Concepción	1:1 ✺
26.11.25	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Copiapó	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Deportes Antofagasta - Deportes Concepción	1:1 ✺
18.11.25	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Antofagasta	2:1 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
31.10.25	Deportes Concepción - Unión San Felipe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 TWTWW
- Cobreloa
Chilean Primera Division
30.11.25	Cobreloa - San Marcos de Arica	3:1 ✺
26.11.25	San Marcos de Arica - Cobreloa	2:1 ✺
23.11.25	Cobreloa - Santiago Wanderers	3:2 penalties ✺
19.11.25	Santiago Wanderers - Cobreloa	2:2 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
02.11.25	Curicó Unido - Cobreloa	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
07.09.25	Deportes Concepción - Cobreloa	4:0
03.05.25	Cobreloa - Deportes Concepción	2:1
31.01.16	Deportes Concepción - Cobreloa	1:0
16.08.15	Cobreloa - Deportes Concepción	2:0

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