Match Info

Liga de Primera - Relegation - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 26 November 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Ester Roa (Concepción)


	Deportes Concepción		Deportes Copiapó

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.4	3.25
	2	3.4	3.29
	2.48	3.21	2.77	Watch
	2.06	3.52	3.29	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.48)	3.39 ↑ (3.15)	3.17 ↑ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Concepción
43.6%

Draw
27.3%

Deportes Copiapó
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

29%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

30.8%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Concepción has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportes Concepción's performance.

Deportes Copiapó has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Concepción than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Copiapó than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Deportes Concepción - Deportes Copiapó Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Deportes Concepción will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Copiapó will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Deportes Concepción: 64.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Concepción (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Copiapó (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Araya N. (G) 4. Caceres A. 3. Carrasco D. 24. Espinola J. 7. Gillard A. 32. Larrivey J. 26. Morales C. 16. Sandoval M. 27. Sepulveda N. 5. Silva S. (C) 11. Valdivia B.	22. Espinoza N. (G) 21. Fernandez E. 20. Filla M. 9. Gallegos Panozzo M. 31. Lopez M. 10. Mazurek F. 7. Ross C. 3. Salomon C. 15. Santander J. 5. Torres F. (C) 6. Zamorano C.
Substitutes
6. Astete N. 9. Escobar C. 31. Kimura N. 22. L’Huillier N. 1. Munoz J. (G) 23. Ojeda U. 19. Ovalle J.	18. Acosta B. 19. Espinoza Olave S. A. 1. Leyton R. (G) 13. Opazo D. 28. Rios A. 32. Rozas I. 26. Soza Quezada C.
Coaches
Almendra P.	Caputto H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Zamorano C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Carrasco D. 🟨,
59', Santander J. 🟨,
59', Almendra P. 🟥,
59', Valdivia B. 🟨,
60', 1 - 0, Larrivey J. (Pen),
66', Filla M. 🟨,
69', Gallegos Panozzo M. ↓, Acosta B. ↑,
77', Valdivia B. ↓, Ovalle J. ↑,
78', Mazurek F. ↓, Rios A. ↑,
78', Ross C. ↓, Soza Quezada C. ↑,
83', Sandoval M. ↓, Astete N. ↑,
85', Zamorano C. ↓, Rozas I. ↑,
89', Larrivey J. ↓, Escobar C. ↑,
90+2', Rozas I. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportes Concepción won 2.

Deportes Concepción has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Copiapó is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Deportes Concepción may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Deportes Concepción won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportes Concepción won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Concepción
Chilean Primera Division
23.11.25	Deportes Antofagasta - Deportes Concepción	1:1 ✺
18.11.25	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Antofagasta	2:1 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
31.10.25	Deportes Concepción - Unión San Felipe	2:1 ✺
26.10.25	Rangers de Talca - Deportes Concepción	1:0 ✺
19.10.25	Deportes Concepción - San Luis de Quillota	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TWWLT
- Deportes Copiapó
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
01.11.25	Deportes Copiapó - Universidad de Concepción	0:3 ✺
24.10.25	San Luis de Quillota - Deportes Copiapó	0:0 ✺
19.10.25	Deportes Copiapó - Deportes Magallanes	2:0 ✺
11.10.25	Deportes Copiapó - San Marcos de Arica	3:1 ✺
04.10.25	Deportes Recoleta - Deportes Copiapó	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
16.08.25	Deportes Copiapó - Deportes Concepción	2:1
13.04.25	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Copiapó	2:0
03.10.15	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Copiapó	0:0
22.03.15	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Copiapó	1:0
26.10.14	Deportes Copiapó - Deportes Concepción	1:1
04.05.14	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Copiapó	1:1

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