Match Info

Liga de Primera - Relegation - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla (Copiapó)

Referee: Jimenez Lazo F. (Chi)


	Deportes Copiapó		Deportes Concepción

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.3	3.5
	1.97	3.19	3.71
	1.98	3.34	3.66	Watch
	2.01	3.36	3.59
	2	3.2	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.66)	3.28 ↓ (3.48)	3.61 ↓ (4.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Copiapó
46.4%

Draw
28.1%

Deportes Concepción
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

26.3%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

26.6%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Copiapó has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportes Copiapó's form might have worsened.

Deportes Concepción has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Deportes Concepción's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Copiapó than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportes Copiapó, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Concepción than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Deportes Concepción, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Deportes Copiapó - Deportes Concepción Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Fierro J. (G) 13. Opazo D. 3. Salomon C. 5. Torres F. (C) 15. Santander J. 28. Rios A. 21. Fernandez E. 10. Mazurek F. 7. Ross C. 31. Lopez M. 14. Jones T.	25. Araya N. (G) 5. Silva S. 31. Kimura N. 24. Espinola J. 26. Morales C. 11. Valdivia B. 16. Sandoval M. 27. Sepulveda N. 7. Gillard A. 4. Caceres A. 32. Larrivey J.
Substitutes
18. Acosta B. 22. Espinoza N. (G) 19. Espinoza Olave S. A. 9. Gallegos Panozzo M. 16. Osses B. 32. Rozas I. 26. Soza Quezada C.	6. Astete N. 9. Escobar C. 1. Munoz J. (G) 10. Nunez F. 23. Ojeda U. 19. Ovalle J. 2. Ramirez M.
Coaches
Caputto H.	Almendra P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Salomon C. ⚽,
21', Munoz J. 🟨,
22', Caceres A. 🟨,
31', Fernandez E. 🟨,
42', Silva S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Caceres A. ↓, Ovalle J. ↑,
67', Fernandez E. ↓, Rozas I. ↑,
69', Mazurek F. 🟨,
70', 1 - 1, Larrivey J. ⚽,
73', Ross C. ↓, Acosta B. ↑,
73', Mazurek F. ↓, Soza Quezada C. ↑,
74', Espinola J. 🟨,
80', Silva S. 🟨,
80', Rios A. ↓, Espinoza Olave S. A. ↑,
80', Opazo D. ↓, Gallegos Panozzo M. ↑,
81', Valdivia B. ↓, Ramirez M. ↑,
82', Ovalle J. 🟨,
85', Gillard A. ↓, Astete N. ↑,
90+4', Larrivey J. ↓, Escobar C. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Copiapó won 1.

In recent matches, Copiapó has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Deportes Concepción is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Deportes Concepción may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Copiapó could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Copiapó won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Copiapó won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Copiapó
Chilean Primera Division
26.11.25	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Copiapó	1:0 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
01.11.25	Deportes Copiapó - Universidad de Concepción	0:3 ✺
24.10.25	San Luis de Quillota - Deportes Copiapó	0:0 ✺
19.10.25	Deportes Copiapó - Deportes Magallanes	2:0 ✺
11.10.25	Deportes Copiapó - San Marcos de Arica	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLTWW
- Deportes Concepción
Chilean Primera Division
26.11.25	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Copiapó	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Deportes Antofagasta - Deportes Concepción	1:1 ✺
18.11.25	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Antofagasta	2:1 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
31.10.25	Deportes Concepción - Unión San Felipe	2:1 ✺
26.10.25	Rangers de Talca - Deportes Concepción	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Primera Division
26.11.25	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Copiapó	1:0
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
16.08.25	Deportes Copiapó - Deportes Concepción	2:1
13.04.25	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Copiapó	2:0
03.10.15	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Copiapó	0:0
22.03.15	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Copiapó	1:0
26.10.14	Deportes Copiapó - Deportes Concepción	1:1
04.05.14	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Copiapó	1:1

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