Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 11

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Santiago Bueras (Santiago de Chile) 🌤️ ...


	Deportes Magallanes		Deportes Concepción

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.4	3.5
	2.08	3.35	3.3
	2.06	3.54	3.26
	2.09	3.47	3.34	Watch
	1.91	3.3	3.7
	2.07	3.74	3.13	Watch
	2.08	3.35	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (2)	3.45 ↑ (3.2)	3.36 ↓ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Magallanes
45.7%

Draw
26.8%

Deportes Concepción
27.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.2%

28.2%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

27.6%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Magallanes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Deportes Concepción has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Magallanes than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Concepción than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Deportes Magallanes - Deportes Concepción Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Magallanes will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Deportes Concepción will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Deportes Concepción (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Concepción (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Bernatene M. (G) 6. Alucema G. 4. Vasquez M. 3. Walters A. 17. Ortega F. 31. Gonzalez M. 22. Morales Olivares M. G. 10. Aranguiz T. (C) 8. Vicuna M. 32. Espinola M. 9. Cezar F.	25. Araya N. (G) 4. Caceres A. 5. Silva S. (C) 3. Carrasco D. 22. L’Huillier N. 6. Astete N. 14. Martinez S. 18. Saavedra Saavedra F. I. 11. Valdivia B. 23. Ojeda U. 32. Larrivey J.
Substitutes
28. Barria A. 7. Lezcano G. 1. Martinic A. (G) 26. Munoz C. 16. Osorio M. 14. Valdez B. 11. Valenzuela C.	9. Escobar C. 24. Espinola J. 7. Gillard A. 8. Manzo F. 10. Nunez F. 31. Saez I. (G) 20. Zambrano Diego

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+1', Astete N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Morales Olivares M. G. 🟨,
50', Walters A. 🟨,
64', Espinola M. ↓, Osorio M. ↑,
64', Cezar F. ↓, Munoz C. ↑,
65', Alucema G. 🟨,
66', 🟨,
72', Munoz C. 🟨,
73', L’Huillier N. ↓, Espinola J. ↑,
73', Valdivia B. ↓, Gillard A. ↑,
90', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Magallanes has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Deportes Concepción has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Magallanes may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Deportes Concepción has had a series of away games.

Magallanes could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Magallanes won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:8. (average 0.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Magallanes won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Magallanes
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
18.05.25	Deportes Temuco - Deportes Magallanes	3:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
09.05.25	Santiago Morning - Deportes Magallanes	1:2 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
05.05.25	Deportes Magallanes - Deportes Santa Cruz	3:0 ✺
27.04.25	Unión San Felipe - Deportes Magallanes	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Deportes Magallanes - Rangers de Talca	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWLT
- Deportes Concepción
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
17.05.25	Deportes Concepción - San Marcos de Arica	1:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
11.05.25	Unión Española - Deportes Concepción	5:1 ✺
07.05.25	Audax Italiano - Deportes Concepción	2:1 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
03.05.25	Cobreloa - Deportes Concepción	2:1 ✺
Chilean Cup
30.04.25	Palestino - Deportes Concepción	4:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
13.02.16	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Magallanes	0:0
30.08.15	Deportes Magallanes - Deportes Concepción	1:1
07.03.15	Deportes Magallanes - Deportes Concepción	0:1
12.10.14	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Magallanes	2:0
08.03.14	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Magallanes	4:1

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