Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 10

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Ester Roa (Concepción)


	Deportes Concepción		San Marcos de Arica

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.25	2.75
	2.7	3.2	2.55
	2.25	3.47	2.84
	2.69	3.24	2.55	Watch
	2.62	3.1	2.5
	2.27	3.38	2.89	Watch
	2.7	3.2	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.41)	3.26 ↑ (3.26)	2.66 ↓ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Concepción
37.1%

Draw
28.3%

San Marcos de Arica
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

28.4%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

29.3%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Concepción has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

San Marcos de Arica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Concepción than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Marcos de Arica than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Deportes Concepción - San Marcos de Arica Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Deportes Concepción (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Concepción (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Araya N. (G) 4. Caceres A. 5. Silva S. 3. Carrasco D. 22. L’Huillier N. 11. Valdivia B. 6. Astete N. 23. Ojeda U. 14. Martinez S. 18. Saavedra Saavedra F. I. 32. Larrivey J.	1. Temperini N. (G) 36. Campos R. 5. Rivera J. 6. Ledesma F. 3. Muller I. 8. Barrios A. (C) 10. Velazco F. 26. Rencoret C. 32. Gauna N. A. 9. Melivilu Fuentes C. 20. Abalos A.
Substitutes
9. Escobar C. 24. Espinola J. 7. Gillard A. 8. Manzo F. 31. Saez I. (G) 27. Sepulveda N. 20. Zambrano Diego	4. Caceres C. 21. Camarda M. 19. Contreras A. 7. Monroy B. 24. Pereira D. 35. Plaza D. 22. Tapia B. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Rivera J. 🟨,
45+1', Ojeda U. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', L’Huillier N. ↓, Espinola J. ↑,
56', Valdivia B. ↓, Gillard A. ↑,
57', Abalos A. ↓, Camarda M. ↑,
69', Larrivey J. ↓, Escobar C. ↑,
69', Ojeda U. ↓, Manzo F. ↑,
71', Melivilu Fuentes C. ↓, Monroy B. ↑,
71', Gauna N. A. ↓, Caceres C. ↑,
75', Espinola J. 🟨,
77', Velazco F. 🟨,
79', 1 - 0, Espinola J. ⚽,
88', Carrasco D. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera).

Deportes Concepción is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

San Marcos de Arica is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

San Marcos de Arica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Deportes Concepción has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Deportes Concepción won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportes Concepción won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Concepción
Chilean Cup
11.05.25	Unión Española - Deportes Concepción	5:1 ✺
07.05.25	Audax Italiano - Deportes Concepción	2:1 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
03.05.25	Cobreloa - Deportes Concepción	2:1 ✺
Chilean Cup
30.04.25	Palestino - Deportes Concepción	4:4 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
27.04.25	Santiago Morning - Deportes Concepción	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLLTW
- San Marcos de Arica
Chilean Cup
10.05.25	Coquimbo Unido - San Marcos de Arica	3:0 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
03.05.25	San Marcos de Arica - Deportes Recoleta	2:1 ✺
27.04.25	Deportes Antofagasta - San Marcos de Arica	2:3 ✺
19.04.25	Santiago Morning - San Marcos de Arica	0:1 ✺
13.04.25	San Marcos de Arica - Universidad de Concepción	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Segunda Division
21.08.22	Deportes Concepción - San Marcos de Arica	0:1
21.05.22	San Marcos de Arica - Deportes Concepción	1:0
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
11.05.14	Deportes Concepción - San Marcos de Arica	0:1

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