Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 3

Date: 2 May 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro (Ibagué)

Referee: Alveal F. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Deportes Tolima		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.4	2.2	Watch
	3.25	3.1	2.2
	3.1	3.4	2.23
	3.34	3.29	2.27
	3.2	3	2.2
	3.25	3.26	2.24	Watch
	3.15	3.2	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.22 ↑ (2.55)	3.24 ↑ (3.2)	2.23 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Tolima
29.1%

Draw
28.9%

São Paulo
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

29.3%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

30.5%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Tolima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportes Tolima's form might have worsened.

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting São Paulo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportes Tolima, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for São Paulo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	40%	60%

Deportes Tolima - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Deportes Tolima has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

São Paulo is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

São Paulo will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
29.04.23	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportes Tolima	2:0 ✺
26.04.23	Deportes Tolima - Jaguares de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
23.04.23	Boyacá Chicó - Deportes Tolima	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
20.04.23	Deportes Tolima - Tigre	1:2 ✺
Colombian Primera A
16.04.23	Deportes Tolima - Junior Barranquilla	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
29.04.23	Coritiba - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.04.23	Ituano - São Paulo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
22.04.23	São Paulo - América Mineiro	3:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
18.04.23	São Paulo - Academia Puerto Cabello	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
15.04.23	Botafogo RJ - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TWWWL

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