Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 5

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Winston Pineda (Jutiapa)

Where to Watch on TV:


South-america	Claro Sports 2 Latin America


	Deportivo Achuapa		Aurora

	1	X	2
	2.22	2.98	3.1
	2.24	3	3.55
	2.35	3.01	3.2	Watch
	2.25	2.8	3.1
	2.12	3.3	3.41	Watch
	2.25	2.8	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (1.84)	2.98 ↓ (3.29)	3.27 ↓ (3.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Achuapa
41.1%

Draw
30.8%

Aurora
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

27.5%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

27.4%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Achuapa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo Achuapa's form might have worsened.

Aurora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Achuapa than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo Achuapa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aurora than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Deportivo Achuapa - Aurora Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Cabezas Quinonez E. A. (G) 88. Carabali Y. 13. Castrillo C. 6. Corado Ruano R. E. 2. Gaitan M. 10. Macal E. 91. Matta A. . Mejia C. 66. Santos C. . Suazo D. 9. Williams J.	1. Navas D. (G) 17. Bajan D. 25. Diaz A. 13. Galindo A. 6. Garcia A. 5. Lemus J. 10. Lovato N. 4. Monterroso C. 7. Motta P. 30. Soriano B. 20. Vivas J.
Substitutes
. Aquino D. 28. Asprilla J. 21. de Leon I. 22. Gonzalez C. 4. Lopez P. 27. Ruiz L. (G) . Sanchez E. 25. Tiul K.	. Arevalo J. 32. Cabrera Barrios I. D. (G) 49. Campos G. 2. Cardona L. 11. Ibarguen E. 23. Joshuaky J. 3. Soriano J. 28. Ticuru J. 31. Urias V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Castrillo C. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Mejia C. ↓, Sanchez E. ↑,
57', Galindo A. (Penalty Awarded),
58', Lovato N. ↓, Urias V. ↑,
59', Motta P. ↓, Ibarguen E. ↑,
59', Diaz A. ↓, Joshuaky J. ↑,
62', Macal E. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
63', 2 - 0, Williams J. ⚽,
67', 2 - 1, Vivas J. ⚽,
68', Galindo A. ↓, Ticuru J. ↑,
70', Vivas J. 🟥,
79', Matta A. ↓, de Leon I. ↑,
87', Williams J. ↓, Rosales ↑,
87', Lemus J. ↓, Cardona L. ↑,
89', Monterroso C. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Achuapa is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Achuapa won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, Achuapa won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Achuapa
Guatemala Liga Nacional
01.02.26	Mictlán - Deportivo Achuapa	0:1 ✺
28.01.26	Deportivo Achuapa - Deportivo Mixco	2:0 ✺
24.01.26	Marquense - Deportivo Achuapa	1:0 ✺
21.01.26	Deportivo Achuapa - Comunicaciones	2:3 ✺
18.12.25	Municipal - Deportivo Achuapa	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WWLLL
- Aurora FC
Guatemala Liga Nacional
01.02.26	Aurora - Malacateco	1:0 ✺
28.01.26	Deportivo Guastatoya - Aurora	2:2 ✺
25.01.26	Aurora - Municipal	2:2 ✺
20.01.26	Xelajú - Aurora	4:0 ✺
17.12.25	Antigua GFC - Aurora	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Guatemala Liga Nacional
18.10.25	Aurora - Deportivo Achuapa	2:1
10.08.25	Deportivo Achuapa - Aurora	1:2

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