Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 22

Date: 27 July 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar (Cuenca)

Referee: Cabrera R. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Deportivo Cuenca		Emelec

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	3.25	Watch
	2.20	2.95	3.00
	2.28	2.98	3.15	Watch
	2.42	3.1	3.24
	2.35	3.05	3.18	Watch
	2.35	3	3.1
	2.34	3.09	3.13	Watch
	2.28	2.95	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.18)	3.02 ↓ (3.15)	3.14 ↓ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Cuenca
39.9%

Draw
30.7%

Emelec
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

29.3%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

30.3%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Cuenca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Cuenca than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	45.5%	27.3%

Deportivo Cuenca - Emelec Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Deportivo Cuenca will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Emelec will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ferrero F. (G) 23. Guevara E. 28. Boolsen P. 18. Piedra M. 37. Arboleda C. 30. Maccari M. 8. Vega E. 7. Mancinelli L. (C) 49. Gonzalez D. 19. Diaz M. 43. Ordonez J.	12. Ortiz P. (G) 80. Herrera O. 27. Leon F. (C) 51. Valencia S. 3. Guerrico I. 5. Mina A. 6. Griffith V. 10. Pizzini F. 8. Napoli G. 19. Ruiz J. 7. Klimowicz L.
Substitutes
14. Chacon J. 53. Erique Villigua Y. H. 20. Garcia B. 25. Lopez A. 16. Mejia J. 12. Minda E. (G) 2. Mosquera I. 5. Noboa D. 6. Postel S. 11. Rivero G. 15. Solis Jaramillo M. A.	17. Ayovi J. 18. Carabali M. 21. Cevallos J. 15. Fragozo L. 25. Narvaez R. 16. Quintero S. 4. Segura E. 28. Tobar B. 1. Valero M. (G) 24. Viteri A.
Coaches
Neculman D.	Nasuti C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', Griffith V. 🟨,
35', 1 - 0, Diaz M. ⚽, Mancinelli L. (A),
45+1', Herrera O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Napoli G. ↓, Fragozo L. ↑,
46', Pizzini F. ↓, Cevallos J. ↑,
46', Klimowicz L. ↓, Ayovi J. ↑,
46', 1 - 1, Guerrico I. ⚽,
62', 2 - 1, Diaz M. ⚽, Ordonez J. (A),
66', Piedra M. 🟨,
70', Ayovi J. 🟨,
74', Ortiz P. ↓, Valero M. ↑,
83', Ruiz J. ↓, Viteri A. ↑,
85', Mancinelli L. ↓, Garcia B. ↑,
85', Ordonez J. ↓, Rivero G. ↑,
90', Leon F. 🟨,
90+1', Ferrero F. 🟨,
90+2', Diaz M. ↓, Lopez A. ↑,
90+5', Valero M. 🟨,
90+6', Maccari M. ↓, Chacon J. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Cuenca won 2.

Deportivo Cuenca has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Emelec has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Deportivo Cuenca could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Cuenca won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 24:30. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Cuenca won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.6:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Cuenca
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.07.26	Deportivo Macará - Deportivo Cuenca	3:0 ✺
18.07.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:2 ✺
15.07.26	Leones del Norte - Deportivo Cuenca	1:1 ✺
12.07.26	Deportivo Cuenca - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
04.07.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Deportivo Cuenca	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTLL
- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.07.26	Emelec - Mushuc Runa	1:1 ✺
19.07.26	Independiente del Valle - Emelec	6:1 ✺
16.07.26	Orense - Emelec	0:2 ✺
12.07.26	Emelec - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:0 ✺
05.07.26	Delfín - Emelec	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
04.04.26	Emelec - Deportivo Cuenca	0:2
20.12.25	Deportivo Cuenca - Emelec	5:1
04.10.25	Emelec - Deportivo Cuenca	3:1
11.08.25	Emelec - Deportivo Cuenca	1:1
19.04.25	Deportivo Cuenca - Emelec	0:1
04.08.24	Emelec - Deportivo Cuenca	0:1
02.03.24	Deportivo Cuenca - Emelec	1:2

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