Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 21

Date: 23 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio George Capwell (Guayaquil)

Referee: Salazar B. L. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Emelec		Mushuc Runa

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.30	4.20	Watch
	1.80	3.20	3.90
	1.83	3.45	4.00	Watch
	1.89	3.38	4.61
	1.77	3.62	4.48	Watch
	1.83	3.30	4.55
	1.90	3.30	4.19	Watch
	1.83	3.25	4.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.17)	3.35 ↑ (3.15)	4.25 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emelec
50.5%

Draw
27.7%

Mushuc Runa
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

29.2%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

28.1%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Emelec's performance.

Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mushuc Runa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Emelec that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mushuc Runa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Emelec - Mushuc Runa Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Emelec will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Emelec (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ortiz P. (G) 80. Herrera O. 2. Leguizamon A. (C) 4. Segura E. 3. Guerrico I. 5. Mina A. 6. Griffith V. 10. Pizzini F. 8. Napoli G. 19. Ruiz J. 7. Klimowicz L.	25. Formento R. (C) 99. Angulo C. 4. Biojo R. 50. Cusme J. 33. Hernandez J. 5. Davila E. 8. Zambrano A. 7. Minda T. 30. Ibarra R. 28. Perea M. 9. Carrillo R.
Substitutes
17. Ayovi J. 18. Carabali M. 21. Cevallos J. 15. Fragozo L. 27. Leon F. 25. Narvaez R. 16. Quintero S. 28. Tobar B. 51. Valencia S. 1. Valero M. (G) 24. Viteri A.	61. Caicedo J. 12. Carabali F. 22. Collaguazo J. (G) 19. Corozo B. 2. Flor F. 18. Gonzalez J. 23. Lemos L. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 52. Merino D. 42. Pabon W. (G) 26. Peralta K.
Coaches
Nasuti C.	Velez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Ruiz J. ⚽, Pizzini F. (A),
45', Biojo R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Herrera O. ↓, Carabali M. ↑,
62', Pizzini F. ↓, Fragozo L. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Carrillo R. (Penalty Awarded),
67', Napoli G. 🟨,
79', Ruiz J. ↓, Viteri A. ↑,
79', Napoli G. ↓, Cevallos J. ↑,
80', Angulo C. ↓, Peralta K. ↑,
80', Cusme J. ↓, Carabali F. ↑,
83', Davila E. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
83', Ibarra R. ↓, Corozo B. ↑,
89', Perea M. ↓, Caicedo J. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 11 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Emelec may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Emelec is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Emelec won 12 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 38:18. (average 1.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Emelec won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 25:4. (average 2.8:0.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Emelec - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 42.43%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
19.07.26	Independiente del Valle - Emelec	6:1 ✺
16.07.26	Orense - Emelec	0:2 ✺
12.07.26	Emelec - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:0 ✺
05.07.26	Delfín - Emelec	1:1 ✺
31.05.26	Emelec - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LWTTW
- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
20.07.26	Mushuc Runa - Orense	2:1 ✺
14.07.26	Deportivo Macará - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
11.07.26	Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle	1:4 ✺
06.07.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Mushuc Runa	2:3 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
03.06.26	Gualaceo - Mushuc Runa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.03.26	Mushuc Runa - Emelec	2:0
20.07.25	Emelec - Mushuc Runa	1:0
29.03.25	Mushuc Runa - Emelec	1:1
11.08.24	Mushuc Runa - Emelec	3:0
08.03.24	Emelec - Mushuc Runa	0:0
23.09.23	Emelec - Mushuc Runa	3:1
23.04.23	Mushuc Runa - Emelec	0:0

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