Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 5

Date: 11 August 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Referee: Santos C. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Deportivo Garcilaso		Alianza Universidad de Huánuco

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.8	5.5	Watch
	1.55	3.75	4.8
	1.62	3.9	5.25	Watch
	1.58	4	5.05
	1.59	3.78	5.68	Watch
	1.65	4.04	5.36	Watch
	1.7	4.1	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.7)	3.91 ↓ (4.1)	5.12 ↑ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Garcilaso
57.9%

Draw
23.9%

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco
18.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

22.8%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

22.4%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Garcilaso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Garcilaso than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Universidad de Huánuco than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Garcilaso (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Deportivo Garcilaso will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zubczuk P. (C) 14. Gallardo J. 2. Salazar A. 13. Lojas J. 18. Nunez O. 26. Celi Y. 16. Beltran C. 8. Gomez N. 10. Sandoval K. 19. Naya E. 11. Erustes P.	31. Espinoza Gomes I. (G) 33. Otavio Gut 30. Duran J. 3. Ampuero A. 7. Gomez A. 28. Perleche A. 8. Lliuya M. 5. Ascues C. 11. Vasquez Ortega E. O. 20. Canela Torres J. J. 17. Mena Y. (C)
Substitutes
34. Arancibia F. 31. Barbieri J. (G) 6. Garrafa Tapia I. A. 23. Moreno X. 25. Paucar E. 22. Portales J. 38. Sinisterra J. 28. Valer J. F. 33. Villacorta S.	22. Campodonico R. 29. Escobar J. 12. Figueroa E. (G) 66. Fuentes P. 14. Guevara B. 6. Ibarguen J. 19. Mendieta J. 15. Ramirez N. 38. Sernaque J.
Coaches
Bustos C.	Mosquera R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Vasquez Ortega E. O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Duran J. ↓, Mendieta J. ↑,
49', 0 - 1, Mena Y. ⚽, Lliuya M. (A),
52', Ampuero A. 🟨,
60', Erustes P. (Pen),
64', Celi Y. ↓, Arancibia F. ↑,
71', Gallardo J. ↓, Sinisterra J. ↑,
72', Canela Torres J. J. ↓, Campodonico R. ↑,
75', Gomez A. 🟨,
76', Lojas J. 🟨,
80', Beltran C. 🟨,
83', Ascues C. ↓, Sernaque J. ↑,
85', 1 - 1, Naya E. ⚽, Arancibia F. (A),
88', Lliuya M. ↓, Fuentes P. ↑,
90+1', Fuentes P. 🟨,
90+1', Gomez N. 🟨,

Preview

Deportivo Garcilaso has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Alianza Universidad is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Deportivo Garcilaso is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Deportivo Garcilaso: Canales E. (Red Card)

There will not play in Alianza Universidad: Barco J. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Alianza Universidad: Gomez R. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Deportivo Garcilaso won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1
06.08.25	Atlético Grau - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:1 ✺
01.08.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Cienciano	2:1 ✺
27.07.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:0 ✺
18.07.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Los Chankas	3:0 ✺
06.07.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Universitario de Deportes	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TWTWL
- Alianza Universidad de Huánuco
Peruvian Liga 1
05.08.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Universitario de Deportes	0:2 ✺
31.07.25	ADT Tarma - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	0:3 ✺
26.07.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Ayacucho	1:2 ✺
20.07.25	Sporting Cristal - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	3:0 ✺
13.07.25	Juan Pablo II College - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
07.03.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:0

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