Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 17

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play, Movistar TV App
Usa	Fanatiz
Vietnam	TV 360


	Deportivo Garcilaso		Juan Pablo II College

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.75	9	Watch
	1.41	4.2	6
	1.37	4.55	8	Watch
	1.35	4.98	7.5
	1.36	5.13	7.52	Watch
	1.33	4.6	8
	1.32	4.95	8.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 (1.35)	4.74 ↑ (4.73)	7.83 ↓ (8.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Garcilaso
68.6%

Draw
19.6%

Juan Pablo II College
11.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.1%

19.7%

11.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.8%

19%

10.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Garcilaso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Juan Pablo II College has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Garcilaso than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juan Pablo II College than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Deportivo Garcilaso - Juan Pablo II College Predictions

Users Predictions: Deportivo Garcilaso will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zubczuk P. (C) 2. Salazar A. 22. Portales J. 19. Gomez A. 16. Nunez O. 11. Arancibia F. 18. Ramos Rodriguez C. I. 14. Torrejon C. 8. Gonzalez A. 24. Olivares C. 30. Da Silva B.	23. Vega M. (G) 31. Toledo J. 6. Fuentes P. 5. Garcia C. 26. Agurto F. 28. Duran J. 18. Ramirez E. 15. Ramirez N. 29. Tizon C. 7. Henricks A. 10. Cueva C. (C)
Substitutes
27. Ascues A. 31. Barbieri J. (G) 13. Benincasa H. 6. Garrafa Tapia I. A. 35. Mendoza J. 17. Ramirez S. 7. Sinisterra J. 33. Villacorta S. 34. Yupanqui B.	11. Aliaga R. 80. Barreto J. 20. Bazan H. 30. Canova J. 17. Espinoza A. 8. Flores C. 39. Juambeltz M. 13. Puno B. 12. Quispe I. (G)
Coaches
Dominguez S.	Quiroz S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Ramos Rodriguez C. I. ⚽, Arancibia F. (A),
9', Olivares C. 🟨,
16', 2 - 0, Olivares C. ⚽, Arancibia F. (A),
23', Toledo J. 🟨,
33', Garcia C. 🟥,
35', Ramirez N. ↓, Canova J. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Henricks A. ↓, Juambeltz M. ↑,
50', 3 - 0, Da Silva B. ⚽,
57', Cueva C. ↓, Aliaga R. ↑,
58', Tizon C. ↓, Bazan H. ↑,
60', Salazar A. ↓, Villacorta S. ↑,
60', Torrejon C. ↓, Ascues A. ↑,
67', Gonzalez A. ↓, Ramirez S. ↑,
67', Nunez O. ↓, Benincasa H. ↑,
77', 3 - 1, Ramirez E. (Penalty Awarded),
79', Ramos Rodriguez C. I. 🟨,
81', 4 - 1, Ramirez S. ⚽, Ascues A. (A),
82', Fuentes P. ↓, Espinoza A. ↑,
85', Arancibia F. ↓, Mendoza J. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 and 18).

Deportivo Garcilaso has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Juan Pablo II's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Deportivo Garcilaso may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Deportivo Garcilaso is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Deportivo Garcilaso: Canales E. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Juan Pablo II: Peralta M. (Red Card)

We predict that Deportivo Garcilaso will win today's game, with odds of 1.46.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Garcilaso won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0. (average 2.5:0).

Including home match between the teams, Deportivo Garcilaso won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0.

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Deportivo Garcilaso	11	7	1	3	18:7	11	22
5	Juan Pablo II	11	5	4	2	21:13	8	19

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1
25.05.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:0 ✺
17.05.26	Deportivo Garcilaso - Cajamarca	2:0 ✺
11.05.26	Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Atlético	2:1 ✺
04.05.26	Los Chankas - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:1 ✺
27.04.26	Deportivo Garcilaso - FBC Melgar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 TWWWW
- Juan Pablo II College FC
Peruvian Liga 1
22.05.26	Juan Pablo II College - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
16.05.26	Juan Pablo II College - Alianza Atlético	0:2 ✺
10.05.26	Sport Huancayo - Juan Pablo II College	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Juan Pablo II College - Universitario de Deportes	1:4 ✺
25.04.26	Sport Boys - Juan Pablo II College	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
13.10.25	Juan Pablo II College - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:1
25.05.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Juan Pablo II College	4:0

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