Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 21 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Bellavista (Ambato)

Referee: Delgado M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, Disney+, DSports 1, DSports 4
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol, fubo Sports Network
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	DirecTV Sports, Disney+, ESPN 2
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Disney+, Inter


	Deportivo Macará		Alianza Atlético

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.75	9.5	Watch
	1.73	3.7	4.5
	1.34	4.25	9.8	Watch
	1.35	4.76	10.41
	1.35	4.64	10.37	Watch
	1.33	4.2	9.5
	1.35	4.64	9.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.7)	4.42 ↑ (3.69)	9.15 ↑ (5.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Macará
68.1%

Draw
21.5%

Alianza Atlético
10.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

25.7%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

24.8%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Macará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Macará's performance.

Alianza Atlético has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alianza Atlético might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Macará than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Macará that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Atlético than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alianza Atlético could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Deportivo Macará - Alianza Atlético Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Macará will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Alianza Atlético will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rodriguez R. (G) 25. Bolanos D. 21. Etchebarne S. 14. Marrufo J. (C) 13. Ayala M. 16. Cazares J. 15. Tello M. 11. Espinoza T. 10. Miranda M. 87. Klinger J. 9. Posse F.	1. Hermoza E. (G) 25. Guzman W. 2. Suarez R. 6. Lujan J. 19. Mendieta J. 15. Lupu H. (C) 20. Perez J. 16. Fernandez S. 7. Coronel F. 32. Quiroga S. 99. Barreda M.
Substitutes
50. Caicedo C. 33. Cardenas J. (G) 77. Chala J. 30. Chamba T. 12. Cuero D. (G) 3. Espinoza J. 22. Ferro L. 4. Jimenez J. 26. Medranda M. 27. Mohor J. 19. Ramos P. 17. Zambrano J.	29. Antilef A. 22. del Castillo J. 37. Delgado J. 10. Diaz G. 23. Munoz A. 17. Penilla C. 95. Prieto D. (G) 40. Quinones Goicochea J. J. 9. Robaldo V. 77. Valladolid C. 4. Villegas J. C.
Coaches
Sanguinetti G.	Urciuoli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Suarez R. 🟨,
44', Marrufo J. 🟨,
45+1', Espinoza T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lujan J. ↓, Villegas J. C. ↑,
61', Quiroga S. ↓, Diaz G. ↑,
62', Perez J. ↓, del Castillo J. ↑,
67', Espinoza T. ↓, Zambrano J. ↑,
67', Klinger J. ↓, Mohor J. ↑,
72', Ayala M. 🟨,
82', Posse F. ↓, Ferro L. ↑,
82', Miranda M. ↓, Chamba T. ↑,
86', Coronel F. ↓, Munoz A. ↑,
90+1', Tello M. ↓, Caicedo C. ↑,
90+1', Barreda M. ↓, Penilla C. ↑,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Macará is the obvious favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Macará won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Macará
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
16.05.26	Deportivo Macará - Independiente del Valle	0:3 ✺
10.05.26	Manta - Deportivo Macará	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.26	Deportivo Macará - Tigre	2:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.05.26	Deportivo Macará - Orense	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
30.04.26	Alianza Atlético - Deportivo Macará	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LWTLW
- Alianza Atlético
Peruvian Liga 1
16.05.26	Juan Pablo II College - Alianza Atlético	0:2 ✺
11.05.26	Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Atlético	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.26	Alianza Atlético - América de Cali	0:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
03.05.26	Alianza Atlético - Sport Huancayo	4:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
30.04.26	Alianza Atlético - Deportivo Macará	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
30.04.26	Alianza Atlético - Deportivo Macará	0:2

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