Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 14

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Bellavista (Ambato)

Referee: Quinonez L. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Teleamazonas, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Deportivo Macará		Independiente del Valle

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.25	2.2	Watch
	2.92	3.2	2.28	Watch
	3.09	3.38	2.4
	3.06	3.34	2.28	Watch
	2.9	3	2.2
	3.04	3.26	2.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↑ (2.93)	3.24 ↑ (2.98)	2.28 ↓ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Macará
30.7%

Draw
28.6%

Independiente del Valle
40.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

31.3%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.8%

31.2%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Macará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Independiente del Valle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Macará than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	40%	60%

Deportivo Macará - Independiente del Valle Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Ind del Valle will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ind del Valle (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rodriguez R. (G) 25. Bolanos D. 21. Etchebarne S. 14. Marrufo J. (C) 27. Mohor J. 5. Estacio J. 16. Cazares J. 77. Chala J. 15. Tello M. 10. Miranda M. 9. Posse F.	1. Quintana A. (G) 4. Espinoza J. 33. Velasco A. 23. Viacava J. 15. Cortez G. 32. Mendez J. (C) 55. Guagua D. 16. Briones R. 8. Ochoa Y. 11. Perello M. 99. Reasco D.
Substitutes
13. Ayala M. 50. Caicedo C. 30. Chamba T. 12. Cuero D. (G) 3. Espinoza J. 11. Espinoza T. 22. Ferro L. 4. Jimenez J. 87. Klinger J. 26. Medranda M. 19. Ramos P. 17. Zambrano J.	6. Alcivar J. 50. Angulo J. 12. Bores E. (G) 14. Carabajal M. 20. Gomez A. 9. Gonzalez C. 53. Lerma J. 19. Loor L. 31. Pata E. 17. Rodriguez A. 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 10. Sornoza J.
Coaches
Sanguinetti G.	Papa J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', Marrufo J. 🟨,
43', Viacava J. 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 1, Briones R. ⚽, Viacava J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Viacava J. ↓, Carabajal M. ↑,
54', 0 - 2, Guagua D. ⚽, Espinoza J. (A),
57', Miranda M. ↓, Chamba T. ↑,
58', Tello M. ↓, Klinger J. ↑,
61', 0 - 3, Reasco D. ⚽, Velasco A. (A),
67', Perello M. ↓, Pata E. ↑,
67', Guagua D. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
70', Cazares J. ↓, Caicedo C. ↑,
70', Posse F. ↓, Ferro L. ↑,
71', Briones R. ↓, Sornoza J. ↑,
71', Ochoa Y. ↓, Lerma J. ↑,
73', Klinger J. 🟨,
83', Chala J. ↓, Espinoza T. ↑,
89', Rodriguez A. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Macará won 0.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Macará may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Ind del Valle has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Macará won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 19:32. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Macará won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1:1.1).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ind. del Valle	30	24	2	4	73:33	40	74
2	Macara	31	16	6	9	43:34	9	54

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Macará
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.05.26	Manta - Deportivo Macará	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.26	Deportivo Macará - Tigre	2:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.05.26	Deportivo Macará - Orense	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
30.04.26	Alianza Atlético - Deportivo Macará	0:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.04.26	Deportivo Macará - Libertad Loja	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WTLWW
- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Super Cup
13.05.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle	0:3 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.05.26	Independiente del Valle - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.05.26	Universidad Central - Independiente del Valle	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.05.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Libertad Asuncion - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
11.07.25	Deportivo Macará - Independiente del Valle	1:2
16.03.25	Independiente del Valle - Deportivo Macará	1:1
24.11.24	Independiente del Valle - Deportivo Macará	7:0
25.05.24	Deportivo Macará - Independiente del Valle	0:1
24.09.22	Independiente del Valle - Deportivo Macará	1:0
09.05.22	Deportivo Macará - Independiente del Valle	0:1
01.08.21	Independiente del Valle - Deportivo Macará	4:0

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