Match Info

Liga Pro - Championship Group - Round 3

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Bellavista (Ambato) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Leon R. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Ecuador	14:00	Teleamazonas, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	14:00	Zapping Sports


	Deportivo Macará		Independiente del Valle

	1	X	2
	4.50	3.70	1.62	Watch
	4.40	3.50	1.63
	4.50	3.50	1.77	Watch
	4.85	3.71	1.73
	5	3.63	1.69	Watch
	4.80	3.65	1.71
	4.60	3.78	1.70	Watch
	4.60	3.60	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.66 ↑ (3.7)	3.63 ↑ (3.06)	1.69 ↓ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Macará
19.8%

Draw
25.4%

Independiente del Valle
54.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

24.9%

30.1%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.7%

31.6%

47.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Macará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo Macará's form might have worsened.

Independiente del Valle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Independiente del Valle's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Macará than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Independiente del Valle, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Deportivo Macará - Independiente del Valle Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rodriguez R. (G) 25. Bolanos D. 4. Jimenez J. 14. Marrufo J. (C) 27. Mohor J. 5. Estacio J. 16. Cazares J. 28. Campana A. I. 15. Tello M. 20. Viera M. 9. Posse F.	1. Quintana A. (G) 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 14. Carabajal M. 5. Schunke R. 19. Loor L. 6. Alcivar J. 11. Perello M. 28. Quintana H. 10. Sornoza J. (C) 31. Pata E. 9. Gonzalez C.
Substitutes
13. Ayala M. 50. Caicedo C. 52. Coello B. 12. Cuero D. (G) 3. Espinoza J. 11. Espinoza T. 21. Etchebarne S. 22. Ferro L. 87. Klinger J. 26. Medranda M. 19. Ramos P.	16. Briones R. 15. Cortez G. 4. Espinoza J. 18. Gongora S. 32. Mendez J. 8. Ochoa Y. 70. Peralta M. (G) 56. Quintero E. 99. Reasco D. 52. Vasquez Y. 33. Velasco A. 23. Viacava J.
Coaches
Sanguinetti G.	Papa J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Sornoza J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', 1 - 0, Campana A. I. ⚽, Viera M. (A),
65', Perello M. 🟨,
65', Posse F. 🟨,
66', Pata E. ↓, Gongora S. ↑,
67', Sornoza J. ↓, Briones R. ↑,
70', Marrufo J. 🟨,
75', Viera M. 🟨,
78', Briones R. 🟨,
79', Gonzalez C. ↓, Reasco D. ↑,
79', Quintana H. ↓, Vasquez Y. ↑,
81', Viera M. ↓, Ayala M. ↑,
82', Perello M. ↓, Quintero E. ↑,
86', Estacio J. ↓, Medranda M. ↑,
86', Tello M. ↓, Caicedo C. ↑,
90+3', Mohor J. ↓, Klinger J. ↑,
90+3', Campana A. I. ↓, Espinoza T. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Macará won 0.

Currently, both sides are showing commendable stability on the pitch.

Ind del Valle is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Macará has recorded 5 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:36 (averaging 1:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Macará against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with 9:13 goals (averaging 0.9:1.3 per game).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ind. del Valle	33	25	3	5	75:35	40	78
2	Macara	34	19	6	9	47:35	12	63

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente del Valle - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 44.91%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Macará
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
11.10.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Deportivo Macará	0:1 ✺
18.09.26	SD Aucas - Deportivo Macará	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Deportivo Macará - Emelec	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Independiente del Valle - Deportivo Macará	3:1 ✺
02.09.26	Deportivo Macará - Manta	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.5 WWWLW
- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.10.26	Independiente del Valle - SD Aucas	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
24.09.26	Gualaceo - Independiente del Valle	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
17.09.26	Flamengo - Independiente del Valle	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.09.26	Libertad Loja - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.09.26	Independiente del Valle - Flamengo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 32.4 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
05.09.26	Independiente del Valle - Deportivo Macará	3:1
16.05.26	Deportivo Macará - Independiente del Valle	0:3
11.07.25	Deportivo Macará - Independiente del Valle	1:2
16.03.25	Independiente del Valle - Deportivo Macará	1:1
24.11.24	Independiente del Valle - Deportivo Macará	7:0
25.05.24	Deportivo Macará - Independiente del Valle	0:1
24.09.22	Independiente del Valle - Deportivo Macará	1:0

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