Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Miguel Grau (Callao)

Referee: Ojeda D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, DSports 1, ESPN 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol, fubo Sports Network
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
South-america	DGO Latin America, ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Dsports 1311
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Latino, Tubi TV
Venezuela	DSports 1


	Alianza Atlético		Deportivo Macará

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.9	3.5	Watch
	2.3	3	3.25
	2.38	2.88	3.2	Watch
	2.44	2.94	3.53
	2.32	2.91	3.59	Watch
	2.38	2.9	3.1	Watch
	2.36	2.91	3.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.38)	2.92 ↑ (2.9)	3.38 ↑ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Alianza Atlético
39.9%

Draw
32.3%

Deportivo Macará
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

32.3%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

32.4%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Atlético has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Deportivo Macará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Atlético than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Macará than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	30%	30%

Alianza Atlético - Deportivo Macará Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Alianza Atlético will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Macará will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alianza Atlético: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Macará (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
95. Prieto D. (G) 21. Perleche E. 2. Suarez R. 4. Villegas J. C. 24. Gordillo A. (C) 8. Flores F. 10. Diaz G. 20. Perez J. 22. del Castillo J. 9. Robaldo V. 7. Coronel F.	1. Rodriguez R. (G) 5. Estacio J. 21. Etchebarne S. 14. Marrufo J. (C) 13. Ayala M. 15. Tello M. 16. Cazares J. 10. Miranda M. 20. Viera M. 9. Posse F. 7. Paz F.
Substitutes
29. Antilef A. 37. Delgado J. 16. Fernandez S. 25. Guzman W. 1. Hermoza E. (G) 11. Larios Saavedra G. A. 6. Lujan J. 15. Lupu H. 19. Mendieta J. 17. Penilla C. 32. Quiroga S. 77. Valladolid C.	8. Blanc G. 25. Bolanos D. 30. Chamba T. 12. Cuero D. (G) 11. Espinoza T. 22. Ferro L. 4. Jimenez J. 87. Klinger J. 26. Medranda M. 27. Mohor J. 17. Zambrano J.
Coaches
Urciuoli F.	Sanguinetti G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Posse F. ⚽, Viera M. (A),
34', 0 - 2, Miranda M. ⚽, Posse F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', del Castillo J. ↓, Larios Saavedra G. A. ↑,
56', Gordillo A. 🟨,
62', Flores F. ↓, Quiroga S. ↑,
62', Gordillo A. ↓, Mendieta J. ↑,
63', Perez J. ↓, Penilla C. ↑,
68', Quiroga S. 🟨,
70', Paz F. ↓, Espinoza T. ↑,
70', Miranda M. ↓, Blanc G. ↑,
75', Diaz G. ↓, Antilef A. ↑,
80', Larios Saavedra G. A. 🟨,
80', Tello M. ↓, Bolanos D. ↑,
81', Posse F. 🟨,
85', Cazares J. 🟨,
88', Viera M. ↓, Klinger J. ↑,
88', Posse F. ↓, Ferro L. ↑,

Preview

Alianza Atlético has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Macará has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Alianza Atlético may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Alianza Atlético will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Atlético
Peruvian Liga 1
26.04.26	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Atlético	1:2 ✺
22.04.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Alianza Atlético	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Alianza Atlético - Sport Boys	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.04.26	América de Cali - Alianza Atlético	2:1 ✺
07.04.26	Alianza Atlético - Tigre	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 WLLLT
- Deportivo Macará
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.04.26	Deportivo Macará - Libertad Loja	3:0 ✺
23.04.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Deportivo Macará	4:0 ✺
19.04.26	Deportivo Macará - Barcelona Guayaquil	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.04.26	Tigre - Deportivo Macará	0:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
12.04.26	Guayaquil City - Deportivo Macará	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WLWWL

Upcoming Matches