Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 20 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Bellavista (Ambato)

Referee: Garay C. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN 4
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Colombia	ESPN 4
Ecuador	ESPN 4
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 4
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 4
Portugal	Sport TV1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 4


	Deportivo Macará		Santos

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	3.9	Watch
	2.05	3.25	3.6
	2.20	3.15	3.30	Watch
	2.02	3.25	3.60
	2.19	3.29	3.42	Watch
	2.05	3.25	3.70
	2.34	3.30	3.45	Watch
	2.12	3.40	3.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.74)	3.27 ↓ (3.37)	3.6 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Macará
44.7%

Draw
29%

Santos
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

28.4%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

28.8%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Macará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Macará's performance.

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Santos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Macará than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Macará that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	22.2%	0%

Deportivo Macará - Santos Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Macará will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Macará: 50.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Macará (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Macará (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rodriguez R. (G) 25. Bolanos D. 21. Etchebarne S. 14. Marrufo J. (C) 27. Mohor J. 5. Estacio J. 16. Cazares J. 10. Miranda M. 28. Campana A. I. 9. Posse F. 20. Viera M.	77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 27. Fernandes D. 15. Willian Arao (C) 26. Joao Ananias 14. Luan Peres 48. Gustavo Henrique 28. Oliva C. 5. Joao Schmidt 11. Rony 17. Caballero G. 16. Thaciano
Substitutes
50. Caicedo C. 77. Chala J. 30. Chamba T. 12. Cuero D. (G) 3. Espinoza J. 22. Ferro L. 4. Jimenez J. 87. Klinger J. 26. Medranda M. 19. Ramos P. 15. Tello M.	1. Diogenes (G) 42. Joao Alencar 34. Joao Paulo (G) 30. Miguelito 21. Moises 39. Pedro Assis 81. Pierri S. 38. Rafael Gonzaga 7. Robinho Jr. 32. Rollheiser B.
Coaches
Sanguinetti G.	Cuca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Gustavo Henrique 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Joao Ananias ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
46', Fernandes D. ↓, Rafael Gonzaga ↑,
62', Bolanos D. 🟨,
64', Viera M. ↓, Klinger J. ↑,
74', Thaciano ↓, Miguelito ↑,
74', Estacio J. ↓, Tello M. ↑,
83', Oliva C. ↓, Pierri S. ↑,
84', Campana A. I. ↓, Ferro L. ↑,
90+1', Rony 🟨,
90+1', Caballero G. ↓, Pedro Assis ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 1-2.

Macará has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Santos is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Santos may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Macará won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Santos - the odds 2.62 are the expected chance of winning is 36.6%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Macará
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
17.08.26	Deportivo Macará - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.08.26	Santos - Deportivo Macará	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
08.08.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Deportivo Macará	1:2 ✺
02.08.26	Deportivo Macará - Guayaquil City	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
29.07.26	Gualaceo - Deportivo Macará	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TLWWL
- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.26	Vasco da Gama - Santos	0:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.08.26	Santos - Deportivo Macará	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.26	Santos - Athletico Paranaense	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
04.08.26	Remo - Santos	0:1 ✺
01.08.26	Santos - Remo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
13.08.26	Santos - Deportivo Macará	2:1

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