Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel (Maldonado)

Referee: Tejera G. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, Disney+


	Deportivo Maldonado		Boston River

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.3	4.5	Watch
	1.8	3.4	4
	1.75	3.4	4.35
	1.79	3.7	4.75
	1.77	3.58	4.58	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.4
	1.75	3.57	4.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.86)	3.48 ↑ (3.34)	4.45 ↑ (4.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Maldonado
52.6%

Draw
26.6%

Boston River
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

27.6%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

27.1%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Maldonado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Boston River has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Maldonado than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boston River than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Deportivo Maldonado - Boston River Predictions

Users Predictions: Deportivo Maldonado will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Segovia D. (G) 4. Ginzo J. M. 3. Menosse H. 19. Tealde F. (C) 22. Ramos J. 8. Gonzalez M. 17. Ramirez S. 14. Tabo C. 10. Noble Sequeira A. M. 21. Espindola M. 16. Cesar R.	1. Antunez B. (C) 23. Rivero M. 2. Sotto K. 13. Fernandez I. 31. Acosta J. 26. Munoa F. 14. Dafonte F. 24. O'Neill Lopez J. S. 32. Gonzalez Y. 16. Suhr L. 8. Bonfiglio F.
Substitutes
42. Fernandez J. 1. Freitas A. (G) 33. Fuica N. 15. Gonzalez S. 11. Lopez G. 29. Mozzone E. 5. Nunez L. 32. Petryk H. 20. Tormo S. 23. Vila A.	5. Barrios F. 9. Gonzalez A. 12. Gonzalez J. (G) 17. Haller R. 20. Hornos M. 29. Lima A. 3. Mancebo M. 28. Martinicorena F. 11. Ramirez G. 99. Reyna G.
Coaches
Di Noia G.	Ithurralde I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Cesar R. ⚽,
12', 1 - 1, Rivero M. ⚽,
21', Cesar R. ↓, Lopez G. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', O'Neill Lopez J. S. ↓, Barrios F. ↑,
49', 2 - 1, Lopez G. ⚽,
54', Ramirez S. 🟨,
58', Gonzalez Y. ↓, Reyna G. ↑,
68', Ithurralde I. 🟨,
76', Espindola M. ↓, Vila A. ↑,
76', Ramos J. ↓, Tormo S. ↑,
76', Ramirez S. ↓, Gonzalez S. ↑,
79', Munoa F. ↓, Hornos M. ↑,
79', Dafonte F. 🟨,
85', Suhr L. ↓, Ramirez G. ↑,
85', Dafonte F. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
87', Tealde F. ↓, Fernandez J. ↑,
88', Lopez G. 🟨,
90+2', Hornos M. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maldonado won 2.

Maldonado is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Boston River's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Boston River may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Maldonado is the team to beat.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Maldonado won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 9:26. (average 0.8:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Maldonado won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1.4:1.8).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Maldonado	9	5	2	2	13:5	8	17
11	Boston River	9	2	3	4	10:12	-2	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Maldonado SAD
Uruguayan Primera Division
02.05.26	Cerro - Deportivo Maldonado	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Albion Montevideo	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Nacional Montevideo	4:2 ✺
05.04.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 WLTWW
- Boston River
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.26	Boston River - Millonarios	2:4 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.26	Boston River - Central Español	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	OHiggins - Boston River	2:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.04.26	Montevideo City Torque - Boston River	4:1 ✺
20.04.26	Boston River - Cerro Largo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
17.08.24	Boston River - Deportivo Maldonado	1:0
17.02.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Boston River	1:2
08.10.23	Boston River - Deportivo Maldonado	2:0
26.02.23	Deportivo Maldonado - Boston River	3:2
23.09.22	Deportivo Maldonado - Boston River	2:1
24.04.22	Boston River - Deportivo Maldonado	2:0
04.12.21	Boston River - Deportivo Maldonado	2:1

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